时事新闻:金正恩的两难选择
"Young general" in quandary over reform.
金正恩的两难选择。
When David Austin, North Korea programme director at Mercy Corps, a US aid agency, visited a hospital in North Pyongan in February to monitor newborn babies, it was so cold in the building that the ink froze in his pen. In one of the icy maternity wards, six new mothers were huddled together under blankets spread across four beds. Even though none of their babies was premature, each child weighed less than two kilos.
美国援助机构美慈组织(Mercy Corps)朝鲜项目主管戴维•奥斯汀(David Austin) 2月份参观了朝鲜平安北道的一家医院，探视那里的新生儿情况。当时，医院大楼里非常寒冷，连奥斯汀钢笔里的墨水都冻住了。在一间冷得像冰窖一样的产科病房里，四张病床拼成了一张大床。在大床上，六位刚生完孩子的母亲合盖着几条搭在一起的毯子，挤作一团取暖。尽管她们的宝宝谁也不是早产，但每个都不到两公斤重。
His visit to the hospital illustrates two of the most pressing concerns for the isolated country's economy: power supplies are moribund and malnutrition is rampant. With an annual cereal shortfall of about 1m tonnes, the UN estimates that about a quarter of the population is starving.
奥斯汀在这个与世隔绝国家的医院看到的情形，暴露出该国经济最紧迫的两个问题：电力供应几近中断，营养不良现象十分严重。朝鲜每年的粮食缺口约为100万吨，据联合国(UN)估算，约四分之一的朝鲜人在饿肚子。
Observers are closely watching Kim Jong-eun, North Korea’s new leader, to determine how he will confront these problems.
观察人士正密切关注朝鲜新领袖金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)的新动向，以判断他会如何应对这些问题。
"Economic reform is difficult as it endangers the stability of the regime," says Jo Dong-ho, a North Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. Kim Jong-eun will be keenly aware that a landmark currency revaluation in 2009 by his father, Kim Jong-il, who died last Saturday, backfired dangerously, sparking market closures and unprecedented dissent.
韩国首尔梨花女子大学(Ewha Womans University)的朝鲜问题专家Jo Dong-ho表示：“搞经济改革很难，因为它会威胁政权的稳定性。”2009年，金正日(Kim Jong-il)推行了里程碑式的货币改革，造成了危险的后果，导致许多市场关闭并引发前所未有的民众抗议。作为金正日的儿子，金正恩肯定对此印象深刻。
While the Kim family has historically been able to crush any protest, hunger appears to be presenting the regime with increasing challenges. Clandestine footage from inside North Korea shows rising numbers of "drifting swallows" — emaciated children who beg at railway stations and scour fields for roots and berries.
尽管金氏家族在粉碎民众抗议方面战无不胜，但饥饿对朝鲜政权构成的挑战似乎越来越严峻。秘密拍摄于朝鲜的视频显示，“流浪的燕子”越来越多。“流浪的燕子”指的是一些瘦骨嶙峋孩子，他们在火车站乞讨，或在田野里搜寻可以吃的草根和浆果。
Mr Austin said the food supply had deteriorated sharply between February and September this year. People reported the state distribution system gave them 150g of food a day — the equivalent of a potato — which was less than half of what they received in February. Spot inspections of maize fields showed much of the crop had failed.
奥斯汀说，今年2月至9月间，朝鲜粮食供应情况严重恶化。据朝鲜人称，政府设定的每人每日粮食定额是150克（相当于一个土豆），比2月份时的定额少了一半以上。对朝鲜多块玉米地的实地考察结果显示，收成状况非常糟糕。
"It was creepy the extent to which people were transfixed by the memory of when they last ate protein. They could remember to the day when they last had an egg or tofu," he said.
奥斯汀说：“朝鲜人非常清楚地记得自己上一次吃蛋白质食品的时间，这不禁令人不寒而栗。他们记得自己上一次吃鸡蛋或豆腐的准确日期。”
With meagre public supplies, people are becoming increasingly reliant on allotments, where they can grow their own food and raise small animals. North Korean defector groups say life has got harder since Kim Jong-il died because many markets have closed for official mourning. The price of rice has risen by about a third, they say.
由于公共渠道供应不足，朝鲜人越来越依赖他们的自留地——他们能在上面种点粮食，养点小牲畜。脱北者团体表示，金正日去世后，朝鲜人的生活变得更加艰难，因为官方关闭了许多市场、以示哀悼。这些团体表示，大米价格上涨了约三分之一。
Power is also reaching critical lows. Electricity consumption is just over a third of the levels seen two decades ago. Forests have been hacked down for fuel, triggering frequent landslides and flooding that in turn have helped disable many of the country's coal mines. North Korea lacks the pumping technology to empty many swamped pits.
电力供应也逼近临界低位。朝鲜今天的用电量只有20年前的三分之一多一点。为获取燃料，朝鲜人砍伐了大片森林，导致泥石流和洪灾频发，进而造成许多煤矿被淹。因缺乏抽水技术，朝鲜许多被淹的矿井得不到清理。
One foreign witness said conditions at open cast mines were also grim, with antiquated excavators digging out "appallingly low-quality coals". "We came across several hundred women shovelling dirt around as part of a rebuilding project there — they were obviously cheaper than an excavator — but whether they were there voluntarily, as paid employees, or as part of a 'social duty', or even as punishment, I never could work out," he said.
一位外国目击者表示，露天煤矿的状况也很糟糕，老掉牙的挖掘机在那里挖出的煤炭“品质低得吓人”。他说：“我们看到几百名妇女手持铁锹铲土，帮助在那里重建一个项目。她们显然比挖掘机更廉价。至于她们在那里到底是义务劳动、还是领工资、抑或是在尽部分‘社会责任’、甚至是在接受什么惩罚，我根本分辨不出来。”
Last month, Seoul's central bank estimated North Korea's gross national income was Won30tn ($22bn) in 2010, one-fortieth of South Korea's level. The lion's share of state spending goes into the North's 1m-man army, uranium enrichment and atomic missile programme.
上月，韩国央行估计，去年朝鲜的国内生产总值(GDP)为30万亿韩元(合220亿美元)，是韩国的四十分之一。朝鲜大部分政府支出流向该国100万人的军队、铀浓缩和核导弹计划。
North Korean state media reported last year that Kim Jong-il was trying to accelerate the production of vinylon, an indigenous synthetic fabric. Despite this effort to boost textiles, overall economic output slid 0.5 per cent during 2010, according to Seoul's central bank.
朝鲜官方媒体去年报道，金正日试图加速维尼纶的生产。维尼纶是朝鲜自力更生发展出的一种化纤面料。根据韩国央行的数据，尽管朝鲜努力促进纺织业的发展，该国整体经济产出去年仍下滑0.5%。
The economy is pinched by sanctions and international security forces have become more adept at seizing the country's illegal arms exports, which were a key source of dollars. Instead, Pyongyang has even turned to cybercrime scams to gain hard currency.
朝鲜经济深受制裁的影响，国际安全部队在扣留朝鲜非法武器出口（这是朝鲜获取美元的一条关键途径）方面已变得更为熟练。作为对策，朝鲜现在甚至改用网络犯罪欺诈来获取硬通货。
Facing such heavy economic pressures, many analysts think Kim Jong-eun, "the young general", has no choice but to open up his country further to China. Beijing acts as the country's lifeline, but it never successfully developed the major commercial concessions it wanted from Kim Jong-il.
面对如此沉重的经济压力，很多分析人士认为，“年轻的将军”金正恩别无选择，只有进一步向中国敞开国门。中国扮演着朝鲜生命线的角色，但从未成功从金正日那里获得它想要的重大商业特权。
Beijing wants to develop a port on the east of North Korea to give landlocked north-eastern China greater access to global trade. It also wants more concessions to North Korea's rich reserves of minerals — including magnesite and gold — that Seoul estimated two years ago were worth $6tn.
中国政府希望在朝鲜东部开发一个港口，以让中国东北内陆地区能够更多地参与全球贸易。中国还希望获得朝鲜丰富矿产资源的更多开采权，其中包括菱镁矿和金矿。韩国政府两年前估计，朝鲜的矿产资源总计价值6万亿美元。
Beijing has tried to develop special investment enclaves in North Korea since the early 1990s, but there is little sign of major commercialisation. This year the two countries announced the start of work on new economic development zones in North Korea, but progress has faltered. Still, South Korea estimates Pyongyang's external trade, 80 per cent of which is with China, rose to $4.2bn in 2010 from $3.4bn a year earlier.
自上世纪90年代初以来，中国政府一直试图在朝鲜开发特别投资区，但迄今那里几乎没有丝毫大规模商业化的迹象。今年，中朝两国宣布启动位于朝鲜的新经济开发区项目，但进展缓慢。尽管如此，据韩国估计，去年朝鲜对外贸易额已从上一年的34亿美元增至42亿美元。对华贸易占朝鲜对外贸易的80%。
However, any increased dependence on China is also seen as risky in Pyongyang and change is unlikely to be sudden. North Korea is traditionally highly suspicious of any foreign investment that could promote social change and increase any popular questioning of the ruling family's legitimacy.
不过，朝鲜同时也认为对中国加大依赖是危险的，它不太可能一夜之间改变政策。传统而言，朝鲜对任何可能推动社会变革、强化公众对金氏统治家族合法性质疑的外国投资都持严重怀疑态度。
"Opening up is always limited to the extent that North Korean society has to be protected from foreign influence," says Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies.
首尔朝鲜研究大学(University of North Korean Studies)教授杨武仁(Yang Moo-jin)表示：“开放总是受到某种程度的限制，以使朝鲜社会不受外国影响。”
