美国新国防战略着重对付中俄

The Pentagon’s first new national defence strategy in four years will adopt a more aggressive military stance against China and Russia as its top priority, according to people familiar with the document.

知情人士称，美国五角大楼将出台四年来的首份新国防战略，其核心要点是对中国和俄罗斯采取更具攻击性的军事立场。

The focus restores Washington’s rivalry with other leading powers to the forefront of US defence planning, in line with last month’s White House national security strategy that named Russia and China as America’s chief adversaries.

这意味着华盛顿的国防方针将重新把美国与其他主要大国之间的对抗摆在首要位置，与上月白宫发布的《国家安全战略》路线一致，后者将俄罗斯和中国列为美国的主要对手。

A defence official who has read the classified document, a small part of which is due to be released in unclassified form on Friday by defence secretary Jim Mattis, told the Financial Times the US is concerned that America’s chief adversaries are eroding its traditional military advantage.

一名读过这份机密文件的国防部官员对英国《金融时报》表示，美国担心主要对手正在侵蚀自身传统的军事优势。美国国防部长吉姆?马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)将于周五公布这份文件的一小部分非机密内容。

“As you look at what China and Russia have developed, it is purposefully meant to counter some of our strengths,” the official said. “What the Chinese have done on hypersonics is specifically meant to limit our aircraft carriers.”

“看看中国和俄罗斯都发展了什么，他们的目的就是有意要对抗我们的一些优势，”上述官员称，“中国在高超音速方面所做的意在限制我们的航母。”

China has developed a fast-flying ballistic missile that in theory could overwhelm US missile defence systems carried on board its sophisticated aircraft carriers.

中国已研制出一型飞行速度极快的弹道导弹，理论上可以穿透美国部署在其先进航母上的导弹防御系统。

President Donald Trump has called for one of the “greatest military build-ups in American history” to ensure “nobody is going to mess with us”.

美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)呼吁进行“美国历史上最伟大的军事建设”之一，以确保“没有人会干扰我们”。

Since the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks on the US, successive administrations have been preoccupied with the threat from Islamist extremism and embroiled in relatively low-tech wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Obama administration focused on overcoming Isis as well as a more diffuse range of threats — including China and Russia — in order to “protect the homeland” and “project power”.

自2001年9月11日遭受恐怖袭击以来，美国历届政府一直忙于应对伊斯兰极端主义的威胁，并在伊拉克和阿富汗打了两场技术含量较低的战争。奥巴马(Obama)政府聚焦于打击“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)以及应对各种威胁（包括来自中国和俄罗斯的威胁），以“保护美国本土”和“投射军力”。

But officials in the Trump administration argue the US now needs to focus its efforts on larger conventional conflict and modernise its forces in the face of rapid technological advances and an increasingly aggressive posture from China and Russia. Insiders say the new Pentagon focus will bolster calls for increased spending and a White House-backed build-up of military hardware.

但特朗普政府的官员称，面对日新月异的技术进步和中俄日益咄咄逼人的姿态，美国现在需要把精力集中于应对较大规模的常规冲突，推动军力现代化。内部人士表示，五角大楼新的防务重点将推高要求增加国防开支、加强白宫支持的军备建设的呼声。

“This document definitely moves beyond [the Obama administration strategy] to very explicitly recognise that we are in an era of great power competition and the two countries that most challenge the US are Russia and China,” said another person familiar with the development of the document.

另一位了解该文件起草过程的人士表示：“这份文件必然超越（奥巴马政府国防战略）——非常明确地承认，我们正处在一个大国竞争的时代，而对美国构成最大挑战的两个国家是俄罗斯和中国。”

“It tries to put US defences on a more competitive basis given the investments that China and Russia have made,” the second person said, adding the strategy seeks to make the US “more competitive in those areas where China and Russia have invested and sought to exploit asymmetries that are favourable to them.”

“考虑到中国和俄罗斯的投入，文件试图让美国的防御建立在更具竞争力的基础上，”第二位人士表示，并补充说，该战略的意图是，“在中国和俄罗斯做了投入、寻求利用对自身有利的非对称战争手段的领域，增强美国的竞争力”。

Experts warn that despite America’s superior military inventory — it has eleven large aircraft carriers to China’s two — the Pentagon is increasingly vulnerable to niche capabilities that its adversaries have developed specifically to target the US.

专家们警告称，尽管美国拥有优良的军事装备（美国有11艘大型航母，中国仅有两艘），但五角大楼越来越容易受到对手专门针对美国发展的特定能力的攻击。

“We could lose the next war we fight,” said David Ochmanek, a former Pentagon official now at the RAND Corporation think-tank and who testified to Congress last year about rapid military advances from Beijing and Moscow.

前五角大楼官员、现在供职于智库兰德公司(RAND Corporation)的戴维?奥切曼尼克(David Ochmanek)称：“我们可能输掉下一场战争。”他去年曾就北京和莫斯科在军事上的快速进步在美国国会作证。

“China and Russia have made great strides fielding [technology] that our forces have never encountered in the post-Cold war era,” he told the FT, citing development of thousands of highly accurate and long-range missile systems that can reach US airbases and foreign fighter jets that could threaten US air superiority.

“中国和俄罗斯在实战（技术）方面取得了巨大进步，这是我国军队在后冷战时代从未遇到的，”奥切曼尼克告诉英国《金融时报》，他提到了两国已经造出了数千颗可以打到美国空军基地的高精度远程导弹系统，还有可能威胁美国空中优势的外国战斗机。

“With cyber and electronic warfare they can threaten our space-based systems and disrupt our command and control which is the brain of complex modern military operations,” said Mr Ochmanek. “We have basically taken a holiday from keeping pace with electronic threats.”

“通过网络战和电子战，他们有可能威胁到我们的天基系统，扰乱我们的指挥和控制，这是复杂的现代军事行动的大脑。”奥切曼尼克说。“在与时俱进应对电子威胁方面，我们可以说是休了一个假。”

US officials are also mindful of minimising casualties in the event of any large conventional war and maintaining what military planners term “overmatch” in a bid to deter adversaries.

美国官员也考虑在发生大规模常规战争时最大限度地减少伤亡，并维持军事规划者所说的“强势”以威慑对手。

Mr Trump’s proposed budget calls for an increased defence department base budget of $603bn, just 3 per cent more than in 2016 and down from $770bn in 2010 at the peak of the war in Afghanistan.

特朗普提出的预算案要求将防务部门的基础预算提高到6030亿美元，只比2016年提高3%，少于2010年阿富汗站战争打得最激烈时的7700亿美元。

Congress has approved an even higher defence budget of $700bn for 2018 but it remains subject to a $549bn spending cap that has yet to be removed as part of overall budget negotiations.

国会已经批准了数额更大的2018年国防预算，为7000亿美元，但这依然受制于5490亿美元的支出上限。作为整体预算协商的一部分，这一上限尚未被解除。

Some critics say a military build-up against other big powers could lead to an arms race that only makes war between nuclear-armed powers more likely.

一些批评人士表示，发展军备对抗其他大国可能导致军备竞赛，这只会使核大国之间爆发战争的可能性上升。

Joe Cirincione, president of Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation that campaigns against weapons build-up, says it is “almost impossible” for China and Russia to close the military gap on the US.

反对扩大军备的全球安全基金会犁头基金会(Ploughshares Fund)的主席乔?奇林乔内(Joe Cirincione)表示，中国和俄罗斯要在军事上缩小与美国的差距“几乎是不可能的”。

“We spend more on our military than the next ten countries combined, including China and Russia: we have the largest, most capable military force in the world,” said Mr Cirincione, adding that while China is “maybe” about to build its third aircraft carrier it cannot match the fleet of the US, which has 11 large carriers and 9 smaller ones.

“我们的军费要比排在后面的10个国家加起来还多，其中包括中国和俄罗斯：我们拥有世界上规模最大、能力最强的军事力量。”奇林乔内说，他补充称，就算中国“可能”要建造第三艘航空母舰，也无法与拥有11艘大型航母和9艘较小航母的美国航母舰队相比。

“The Russians are working on some interesting new weapons but they don’t come close to the sophistication or quantity of our weapons,” he said.

“俄罗斯人正在研究一些有趣的新武器，但不管是武器的先进程度还是数量，他们都无法赶上我们，”奇林乔内说。