年奧斯卡：最佳演員們誰最惴惴不安？

Cate Blanchett, Matthew McConaughey, Lupita Nyong’o and Jared Leto are the front-runners in the acting categories. Which one is most vulnerable?

Thompson: The best actor race is so close that Chiwetel Ejiofor, Leonardo DiCaprio or Bruce Dern could edge out McConaughey. It's a numbers game. Who expected Tom Hanks to lose a nomination for the best performance of his career in "Captain Phillips"?

Karger: Definitely Lupita. That BAFTA win for Jennifer Lawrence threw everything off-kilter.

O'Neil: McConaughey and Nyong'o are both vulnerable. Leo may emerge as the "Wolf" of Oscar night and Lawrence could pounce to grab a new Oscar one year after snagging her first. Yes, we have frontrunners in these races, but the Oscars never go according to script.

Sharkey: A few weeks ago I would have said all the acting categories were a lock. But in the wake of the Woody Allen/Dylan Farrow firestorm, Blanchett might be at risk. The decision should rest on her performance alone, which is without question the best in that category. But Oscar has a bad habit of making things personal, and not in a good way.

Whipp: That should be the winning quartet, but Nyong'o has the most reason to be nervous. Jennifer Lawrence received a huge ovation when her name appeared during the closing credits at the Academy screening of "Hustle." People adore her. With four acting nominations, "Hustle" owns a lot of love among voters in that huge bloc and it wouldn't be shocking if one of the cast members wins. Lawrence has the best chance.

Did composer Bruce Broughton, disqualified for original song, deserve to have his nomination taken away?

Sharkey: I was shocked when the academy took Broughton's original song nomination away. Given that the entire awards season now plays out like an extreme cage fighting match, what Broughton did seems like a minor infraction at best. And is he really the only one to cross lines during this entire race?

O'Neil: The Oscars didn't disqualify "The Hurt Locker" or its producer Nicolas Chartier when he committed the same offense as Broughton. Chartier had his ceremony tickets pulled, that's all. The academy should've doled out the same penalty to Broughton.

Whipp: Disqualifying Broughton was harsh, but he clearly violated the rules. Would the song have been nominated had he not sent the emails? Probably not.

Thompson: Yes. He should not have used his privileged position as a former academy governor and music branch executive committee member to email his fellow voters to please pay attention to his song, which otherwise would have remained on a long list of also-rans.

What Oscar-night win would bring the biggest smile to your face?

Breznican: June Squibb for "Nebraska." I love that woman, and she's an 80-something dynamo. A true testament to what a lifetime of steady good work can build toward — an Oscar nomination. How nice if it were a win. But, even without the trophy, she has won my heart. Aww…

Thompson: Chiwetel Ejiofor for best actor. That long closeup at the end of "12 Years a Slave" should get him that Oscar. Yet he's up against the strongest set of performances in years -- all are deserving. If Matthew McConaughey wins, it will be because he turned his career around and showed us what he could do -- in a string of indie films as well as the currently running "True Detective." It's the gorgeous-movie-star-turned-serious-thespian-award that went to Halle Berry and Charlize Theron.

Karger: This is obscure, but I’m really pulling for "The Lady in Number 6" for best documentary short. And now that the film’s inspirational subject, Alice Herz-Sommer, has passed away, a win would be a lovely tribute.

O'Neil: I will smile and cheer if "Philomena" -- my dearly beloved film of the year -- wins something. Frankly, it deserves to win best picture, but I'll settle for screenplay or (dare I suggest it?) lead actress.

Sharkey: A "Gravity" best picture win would bring a smile. For all the well-executed significance of "12 Years a Slave," for all the fun of "American Hustle's" con, watching all the contenders again in recent days, I came away loving "Gravity" the most.

Whipp: The academy rarely honors world-class directors, and when it does, it's often for films that aren't their best work. So I will relish watching Alfonso Cuaron winning for "Gravity."凱特·布蘭切特(Cate Blanchett)、馬修·麥康納(Matthew McConaughey)、露皮塔·尼永奧(Lupita Nyong'o)、傑瑞德·萊託(Jared Leto)是表演類獎項的佼佼者。他們之中誰的實力最弱？

湯普森：最佳演員競賽演員們旗鼓相當，切瓦特·埃加福特(Chiwetel Ejiofor)、萊昂納多·迪卡普里奧(Leonardo DiCaprio)和布魯斯·鄧恩(Bruce Dern)可能險勝麥康納。這就是個數字遊戲。誰能想到湯姆·漢克斯(Tom Hanks)在《菲利普船長》中的表演沒能贏得最佳男演員提名呢？

卡爾格：當然是露皮塔。詹妮弗·勞倫斯贏了英國電影電視藝術學院獎後，一切都一目瞭然了。

奧尼爾：麥康納和尼永奧實力都不強。小李子可能在頒獎之夜崛起，像匹“奧斯卡之狼”；而勞倫斯可能突襲又一個奧斯卡獎，去年她第一次奪獎。是的，競賽中總有佼佼者，但是奧斯卡絕不是按照劇本走的。

薩基：幾周前我就說過所有的表演獎項都定了，但是隨後伍迪·艾倫(Woody Allen)和迪蓮·法羅(Dylan Farrow)醜聞爆發，布蘭切特可能就危險了。奧斯卡應該僅就其表演評價，當然她的表演無疑是表演組中最好的。不過奧斯卡專家組有個壞習慣——看人下菜，結果往往不盡如人意。

惠普：他們四人都有可能獲勝，但是尼永奧將是最提心吊膽的一個。當詹妮弗·勞倫斯的名字出現在奧斯卡《美國騙局》提名名單的末尾時，她獲得了熱烈掌聲。人們都喜歡她。《美國騙局》這部電影共獲得四個提名，在奧斯卡呼聲最大，如果其演職人員得了獎，那一點都不稀奇。勞倫斯機會最大。

作曲家布魯斯·布勞頓(Bruce Broughton)因作弊失去爭奪最佳原創歌曲的資格，而且連提名都一併被撤銷，這樣值得嗎？

薩基：當聽到奧斯卡撤銷布勞頓最佳原創歌曲提名時，我很震驚。鑑於整個競賽賽季都像一場激烈的籠中大戰，布勞頓做的只是個擦邊球而已。再說了，整個賽季真的只有他一個違規了嗎？

奧尼爾：當《拆彈部隊》團隊犯了和布勞頓一樣的錯時，奧斯卡並未取消《拆彈部隊》或其製片人尼古拉斯·夏蒂爾(Nicolas Chartier)的競選資格。夏蒂爾在奧斯卡確實拉過票，僅此而已。學院獎應該也給布勞頓同樣的機會。

惠普：撤銷布勞頓資格過於嚴厲，但他確實違反了規則。他不發郵件這首歌就得不了獎嗎？或許不是。

湯普森：對。他不應該利用特權，他是前奧斯卡委員長，也是音樂執行會成員，他給他曾經的部下們發郵件，請他們關照他的歌曲，要不是作弊，這首歌本應該還在最佳歌曲提名名單上的。

奧斯卡之夜花落誰家最讓你開心？

布倫南：《內布拉斯加》的瓊·斯奎布。我喜歡那位女士，她是個八十多歲的老頑童。她證明了一輩子堅持不懈好好表演確實可以通向——一個奧斯卡提名。她要是贏了多好啊。不過即便贏不了，他也贏得了我的心。哇哦……

湯普森：切瓦特·埃加福特贏得最佳男演員。《爲奴十二年》片尾的長特寫帶給了他奧斯卡。不過他的對手可是近年來實力最強的演員——他可是實至名歸。如果馬修·麥康納贏了，那是因爲他成功轉型，他向我們展示他的能量——一系列的獨立電影還有正在上映的電視劇《真探》。有個獎叫做“最佳電影明星轉型悲情獎”，倒是應該頒給哈利·貝瑞(Halle Berry)和莎莉茲·塞隆(Charlize Theron)。

卡爾格：獎項不明朗，但我真的很喜歡《6號女人》，希望它能贏得最佳紀錄短片。電影主人公愛麗絲·赫茲·桑默(Alice Herz-Sommer)非常鼓舞人心，她已經去世了，遲來的獎將是一份美好的頌辭。

奧尼爾：今年要是我最喜歡的《菲洛梅娜》得了獎，我會高興得歡呼起來。坦白說，它有資格贏得最佳影片，不過最佳劇本或者最佳女演員（我可敢推薦）我也挺滿意。

薩基：我希望《地心引力》獲得最佳影片。《爲奴十二年》好評一面倒，《美國騙局》笑得人合不攏嘴，這些天我又看一邊參賽影片，我認爲還是《地心引力》最好看。

惠普：奧斯卡很少給世界級導演頒獎，如果頒了獎，通常是因爲這些電影不是他們的最佳作品。所以我看好阿方索·卡隆(Alfonso Cuaron)的《地心引力》。