俄專家稱2036年小行星撞地球遭質疑

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An asteroid travelling at 23,000mph could crash into Earth on April 13, 2036 killing millions and causing global chaos, scientists claim.
　　科學家們發出警告：在2036年的4月13日，會有一顆小行星以每小時23000英里的時速撞上地球，屆時將造成大規模的傷亡，同時引起全球的騷亂。

In a plotline taken straight from a science-fiction film, astronomers in Russia are predicting that the 300-yard-wide Apophis could slam into the planet in 25 years' time.

彷彿就是科幻災難片中的情節，俄國的天文科學家們預言，一顆直徑爲390米的名爲“阿波菲斯”(埃及神話中的災難和破壞之神)的小行星將在25後襲擊地球。

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2011-02-14 09:39:48 　來源：國際在線專稿　編輯：陸熙堯　　發表評論　　進入論壇>>

In a plotline taken straight from a science-fiction film, astronomers in Russia are predicting that the 300-yard-wide Apophis could slam into the planet in 25 years' time.

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But don't panic just yet, as it is extremely unlikely to happen.

不過也無需驚慌，因爲出現該情況概率可謂微乎其微。

So unlikely, in fact, that Nasa has given the catastrophic event odds of 250,000-to-1 that it actually takes place.

據美國宇航局的估測，小行星撞上地球的機率約爲250000分之1而已。

First, the comet must pass through a narrow gravitational keyhole - a small region in space that can alter the course of a passing asteroid due to Earth's gravity - in April 2029 before it can be on course to collide seven years later.

首先，這枚彗星在2029年時，也就是其“襲擊地球”倒推7年的時候必須穿過狹長的引力鎖眼，這樣它纔會受到地球引力的作用。The force of Earth’s gravity is so great that if the asteroid goes through the hole its path could be ‘tweaked’ - sending it straight towards us.

在強大引力的作用之下，“穿孔”成功的彗星軌道發生變形，氣候將不偏不歪的朝地球直接撲來。

Donald Yeomans, head of Nasa’s Near Earth Object Program office, said there is a remote chance the asteroid could collide with Earth.

美國宇航局近地天體部門的負責人唐納德·尤曼斯表示，“阿波菲斯”撞擊地球的可能性相當低。

‘The situation is that in 2029, on April 13, Apophis flies very close to Earth, within five Earth radii, so that will be quite an event, but we’ve already ruled out the possibility of it hitting at that time,’ he told Life’s Little Mysteries.

“在2029年4月13日時，小行星會非常接近地球，兩者間的距離僅爲五個地球半徑，這雖然算得上是個‘事件’，不過我們已經排除了它撞擊地球的可能性。”‘On the other hand, if it goes through what we call a keyhole during that close Earth approach then it will indeed be perturbed just right so that it will come back and smack Earth on April 13, 2036.’

“不過，如果其成功的穿越了“鎖眼”，我們會陷入麻煩，因爲‘阿波菲斯’將極有可能在2036年4月13日‘光顧’地球。”

Although Russian scientists are predicting the asteroid may strike earth in 2036, Mr Yeomans said it is highly unlikely.

儘管俄羅斯科學家已經預測了撞擊，但尤曼斯還是認爲出現這樣情況機率將非常之小。

Professor Leonid Sokolov of the St Petersburg State University told the RiaNovosti website: ‘Apophis will approach Earth at a distance of 37,000-38,000 kilometres (per hour) on April 13, 2029.

聖彼得堡國立大學教授萊尼德·索科洛夫指出，“2029年4月13日時，“阿波菲斯”將以每小時3700到3800公里的時速接近地球。“

‘Its likely collision with Earth may occur on April 13, 2036. Our task is to consider various alternatives and develop scenarios and plans of action depending on the results of further observations of Apophis.’

”撞擊有可能發生在2036年4月13日，我們的任務是在大難臨頭前制定出應對辦法，避免遭難發生。“However, U.S. scientists have estimated the actual chance of it happening is one in 250,000. Although it is big enough to cause a lot of damage to the planet it would not bring about the Armageddon.

儘管美國學者預測改事件發生的機率僅爲250000分之1，而撞擊也會對地球帶來極大的破壞，但這並不意味着”世界末日“的到來。

If it is discovered that Apophis is on course to crash into the earth, Nasa would attempt to take evasive action to change its path. The easiest way of doing this would be to crash an unmanned spaceship into the asteroid

若觀測到“阿波菲斯”直直向地球襲來之後，美國宇航局將採取方法，改變其運行軌道，措施之一便是讓其裝上一架無人駕駛的宇航飛船。