冥冥之中很玄乎 迷信並非一無是處

It starts when people try something different-Pepsi instead of Coca-Cola, a blue tie instead of the old red one-and find that something good happens.
在一旦嘗試了新東西――百事可樂替代可口可樂，用藍領帶替代舊的紅領帶――之後有好事發生，很多人就會變得迷信起來。

Soon, without realizing it, someone who wouldn't think twice about, say, walking under a ladder or traveling on Friday the 13th begins to associate their new behavior with good luck-and starts reaching for the Pepsi again and again.
那些人雖然毫不介意走在梯子下面、不介意在恰逢13號的週五這天出遠門，但他們很快也開始不自覺地將好運氣和這些新行爲相關聯，然後就一聽接着一聽地喝起了百事可樂。

Such 'conditioned superstitions' can develop when people believe there is something they can do to control a situation, despite there being no rational reason to think so, says Gita Johar, a professor of business at Columbia University who recently co-wrote a paper on the phenomenon. Recent research shows that superstitions that increase the illusion of control can help people find meaning and psychological comfort-and in some cases, even boost performance.
哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)商業教授喬哈爾(Gita Johar)說，如果人們在沒有合理依據的情況下相信他們可以通過做某些事來控制某一局面，這種“條件性迷信”(conditioned superstition) 就產生了。喬哈爾近期曾就這一現象與人合寫了一篇論文。近期研究顯示，這種能強化控制幻覺的迷信能夠幫助人們找到事情的意義，獲得心理安慰，有時甚至能提升業績。

People who have both a high need for control and a sense of helplessness in a given situation-such as the straight-A perfectionist who didn't have time to study for an exam-are the most likely to succumb to conditioned superstition, researchers say.
研究人員說，那些特別想要控制局面同時又在特定情境下感到無能爲力的人――比如一個要求成績全A、但又沒時間複習考試的完美主義者――最有可能受到“條件性迷信”的影響。

And while such superstitions can be broken, says Dr. Johar, it often takes a lot of negative evidence before people are willing to part with their lucky rituals. That's because they 'provide some sort of a hedge against uncertainty,' says Eric Hamerman, an assistant professor of marketing at Tulane University's Freeman School of Business who, with Dr. Johar, co-wrote the study, published in October in the Journal of Consumer Research.
喬哈爾說，儘管這類迷信可以破除，但人們通常需要看到大量的負面證據，才願意和那些被認爲給他們帶來好運的做法分道揚鑣。圖蘭大學(Tulane University)弗里曼商學院(Freeman School of Business)市場營銷副教授哈默曼(Eric Hamerman)說，這是因爲這些迷信爲人們樹立起一堵抵禦不確定性侵擾的圍 。他與喬哈爾合着的研究論文發表在了10月份的《消費者研究》(Journal of Consumer Research)雜誌上。

In their experiment, Drs. Johar and Hamerman had 275 participants play the game 'rock, paper, scissors' against a computer-10 series with their right hand and 10 with their left. Unbeknownst to the participants, the computer program manipulated the results to make some people fare better with their left. When given the chance to choose which hand to use for the final matches, more than three-quarters of those playing the rigged game chose the hand that 'caused' them to win more.
在他們的實驗中，喬哈爾和哈默曼邀請了275名參與者與一臺電腦玩“石頭、剪刀、布”的遊戲，每人用左、右手各玩10次。而受試者並不知道，電腦程序對遊戲結果進行了操控，讓某些人用左手玩的時候能更勝一籌。在最後的比賽中，受試者可以選擇使用哪隻手來參賽，結果超過四分之三的人選擇用那隻讓他們贏得更多輪比賽的手。

If asked, few participants would say they consciously decided to choose the left hand because they thought it would make them lucky. However, their behavior suggests they conditioned themselves to make the connection, say the researchers.
研究人員說，在被問及原因時，很少有受試者會說他們是有意選擇了更走運的左手，但他們的行爲說明他們條件性地在二者間建立了因果關係。

The phenomenon of conditioned superstition is common enough that entire advertising campaigns have been built around it, says Dr. Hamerman. A recent Bud Light commercial, for example, has a fan forcing down a terrible-tasting veggie burger because his team won the last time he did so.
哈默曼說，“條件性迷信”現象的存在之廣，足以讓廣告活動都圍繞它展開。比如百威淡啤最近的一則廣告中，一個球迷吃着難以下嚥的素食漢堡，只因爲上一次他吃這種漢堡的時候他的球隊贏了。

Mary Pfister, a 20-year-old sophomore at Saint Louis University, wears her Chicago Blackhawks shirt for each game. The hockey team won big the first time she wore it this season. She once made a 15-minute trip, out of her way, back home to get it for game time. The Blackhawks have lost once while she was wearing her shirt-the only time she didn't watch the game. The connection may be 'all in her head,' she says, but it gives her peace of mind.
路易斯大學(Saint Louis University)的20歲大二學生菲斯特(Mary Pfister)每次看芝加哥黑鷹隊的比賽時都會穿上球隊的隊服。本賽季她第一次穿上那件衣服時，該曲棍球隊大比分獲勝。有次她還特意花15分鐘繞道回家去拿這件衣服以備在比賽時間穿上。在她穿着那件衣服時，黑鷹隊輸過一次比賽，那也是她唯一一次沒有看比賽。她說，也許我是在異想天開，但這麼一來我每次都能安心不少。

In their recently published experiment, Drs. Johar and Hamerman found they could reduce people's superstitious behavior by reminding them of their positive traits, a technique psychologists call 'self-affirmation.' In the study, people who were asked to write about times they had shown compassion later exhibited less superstitious behavior than those who had just been given a survey.
在喬哈爾和哈默曼最近發表的一篇研究中，他們發現可以通過提醒人們想起自己的優秀品質，來削弱他們的迷信傾向，這是一種被心理學家稱作“自我肯定”的方法。在研究中，一些人先被要求寫下能體現出自己富有同情心的經歷，在隨後的調查中，這些人比直接受調查者的迷信程度要小了許多。

All participants in the study answered obscure trivia questions on both blue and green computer backgrounds and were told, regardless of their actual score, that they performed better when answering questions presented on the green screen. When asked to choose the screen color for the final task, those who had been primed to remember their virtuous acts were less likely to choose the 'lucky' green background.
全部受試者分別在藍、綠色背景的電腦上回答了一些不起眼的小問題，並被告知（無論真實成績如何）他們在綠色屏幕的那臺電腦上的答題得分更高。當被問到想用什麼顏色的屏幕來完成最終任務時，那些先前被提醒過自己所做善舉的人們較不太會選擇“幸運的”綠色背景。Reminding people of their good traits makes them more emotionally secure, says Claude Steele, an early researcher into the psychology of self-affirmation and now a dean in Stanford University's graduate school of education. 'If I feel secure that I am a good person, I can be more open to threat in general, and that makes me less needful of being superstitious,' he adds. It isn't that people no longer think their team will lose, or that they'll fail a test, he says. Instead, self-affirmation makes them more psychologically resilient, and helps them realize they can cope even if something bad happens.
斯坦福大學教育研究生院院長斯蒂爾(Claude Steele)對自我肯定進行過早期心理學研究，他說提醒人們牢記自己的優秀品質能夠讓他們心裏更有安全感。如果我確信自己是一個優秀的人，總體而言我可以更加勇敢地面對威脅，進而就更無須靠迷信來幫忙。他補充道，並不是說人們這樣就堅信球隊獲勝或者考試通過。而是說自我肯定能夠增強他們的心理抵抗力，幫助他們意識到即便有什麼不好的事情發生，自己也能應付得了。

Still, for people under pressure to compete or perform, superstitious behavior can create a placebo effect that can improve the outcome. Since the age of 15, Maria Fabregat Farran, a 20-year-old student at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, has always worn a red bracelet while taking exams. 'My mom gave it to me and said it was lucky, and wearing it makes me more relaxed,' she says. 'I think it helps me on tests.'
儘管如此，如果人們肩負着競爭或盡力表現的壓力，迷信行爲可以催生出一種安慰劑效應(placebo effect)，讓他們的表現更加出色。巴塞羅那自治大學(Autonomous University of Barcelona)的20歲學生法蘭(Maria Fabregat Farran)從15歲開始，每次考試都會帶上一個紅色的手鐲。她說：我媽媽給我這個手鐲，告訴我它有福氣，戴着它我更放鬆。我覺得它能幫助我應對考試。

In a 2010 experiment published in Psychological Science, golfers sank 35% more putts when playing with a ball they were told was 'lucky.' Sports teams from Little League to the pros are rife with players who practice a ritual or carry a charm they believe will boost their performance. Michael Jordan, for one, was famous for wearing his lucky college basketball shorts under his NBA ones.
據《心理科學》(Psychological Science)雜誌2010年發表的一篇研究報告稱，當高爾夫球手在被告知所用之球能帶來好運時，他們的擊球入洞率上升了35%。無論是職業球手還是美國少年棒球聯合會(Little League)的小隊員，都流行在比賽前舉行祈福儀式或佩帶一塊護身符，因爲相信這會讓他們有更好的表現。籃球巨星喬丹(Michael Jordan)也有一個衆所周知的習慣，那就是每次比賽都將他的幸運大學籃球短褲穿在NBA隊服的裏面。

While conditioned superstitions affect personal behavior, cultural ones can impact the market at large. Some 10,000 fewer people fly on Friday the 13th, and U.S. businesses generate less revenue on those days compared with other Fridays, since some people don't want to travel, work or make purchases, says Thomas Kramer, an associate professor of marketing at the University of South Carolina's Moore School of Business.
“條件性迷信”會影響個人行爲，而文化迷信則會更廣泛地影響着市場。南卡羅萊納大學(University of South Carolina)摩爾商學院(Moore School of Business)市場營銷副教授克雷默(Thomas Kramer)說，如果13號恰逢星期五，這天的航空出行乘客會減少約10,000人，這一天美國企業的創收也較其它週五要少，因爲一些人在這一天不會出遠門、工作或者購物。

In a study published in the Journal of Consumer Research in 2008, Dr. Kramer asked 95 students to write down their associations with either Friday the 13th or an innocuous day before answering questions about gambling decisions. His finding: After thinking about Friday the 13th, compared with a random day, participants became more risk-averse. 'They were willing to forgo a gamble with a larger payoff in favor of a lower gamble with assured value,' he says.
在2008年《消費者研究》上發表的一篇研究中，克雷默讓95名學生參與一場賭博遊戲，並在回答問題之前，讓一部份人用紙筆把自己與恰逢星期五的13號聯想起來，另一部份人則隨便寫下一個不晦氣的日子。他發現：思索過13號週五的受試者比其他受試者的避險傾向更強。他說，相比一個高風險高回報的大賭，他們更傾向於有確定收益的小賭。