中國金屬交易市場爭搶國際份額

Once already this year traders in London have been dragged out of bed at 1am when copper plunged in Shanghai. That could happen more often and to more drowsy Londoners as SHFE adds two new contracts — nickel and tin — that were long the preserve of the London Metal Exchange only.

倫敦的交易員今年已經有過一次在凌晨1點上海的銅價驟跌時被叫起牀的經歷了。如果上海期貨交易所(SHFE，見右圖)再增加兩種新期貨合約——鎳和錫——的話，之前那種情況可能會更加頻繁地、發生在更多睡眼惺忪的倫敦交易員身上。很長時間以來這兩種金屬期貨僅在倫敦金屬交易所(LME)交易。

Metals volumes on the SHFE, which was launched in 1999, have been increasing over the past few years.

上海期貨交易所成立於1999年，最近幾年該交易所上市交易的金屬期貨品種不斷增加。

Last week’s launch of the new contracts takes its offerings in industrial metals to six, equal to those traded on the LME, the world’s largest centre of metals trading. The LME was bought by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing for £1.4bn in 2012.

上週新推出的兩種金屬期貨合約，使上海期貨交易所交易的工業金屬增至6種，與LME交易的金屬數量相同，後者是世界最大的金屬交易中心。2012年，LME被香港交易及結算所有限公司(Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing，簡稱港交所)以14億英鎊收購。

Many traders believe the SHFE has now taken its place alongside New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex and the LME as a key price centre for the world’s metals trade.

很多交易商相信，上海期貨交易所如今已經與紐約商業交易所(NYMEX)旗下的紐約商品交易所(Comex)、以及LME並駕齊驅，成爲全球金屬交易的關鍵價格中心。

Do we really care about SHFE, or Chinese exchanges for that matter?

就這個問題而言，我們真的在乎上海期貨交易所或中國各家交易所嗎？

Daily liquidity on SHFE is surpassing that of the LME and Comex put together. The highest monthly trading volumes for copper and zinc last year were on the SHFE, according to Macquarie.

上海期貨交易所的日均成交量即將超越LME和Comex的總和。麥格理(Macquarie)稱，去年期銅和期鋅的月度成交量最高值均出自上海期貨交易所。

Chinese futures contracts were also the top four most traded metals contracts in the world last year, according to the Futures Industry Association. SHFE’s steel rebar contracts were the most traded, with volume up 38.9 per cent to a record level of 408m contracts. Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity exchange came in third.

美國期貨業協會(Futures Industry Association)表示，去年全世界成交量最大的4個金屬合約也都是中國的。上海期貨交易所的螺紋鋼期貨合約也是成交量最大的，成交量增長了38.9%，至創紀錄水平的4.08億手。大連商品交易所(Dalian Commodity exchange)的鐵礦石期貨交易量位列第三。

Who trades on it?

誰在這裏交易？

Chinese futures companies and funds as well as foreign companies which have wholly-owned subsidiaries in China can also trade on the exchange through domestic brokers. Chinese smelters use the SHFE price as a basis to sell material to end users. With China being the world’s largest metals consumer, prices on the SHFE give a key indication of the state of the domestic market.

除了中國的期貨公司和基金公司，在華擁有全資子公司的外國公司，也可以通過國內經紀商在上海期貨交易所進行交易。中國的冶煉廠把該交易所的價格作爲向終端用戶出售材料的基準。隨着中國成爲世界最大的金屬消費國，上海期貨交易所的價格成爲反映國內市場狀況的關鍵指標。

OK, volumes are big, but can the SHFE prices affect international markets?

好吧，就算成交量很大，但是上海期貨交易所的價格能影響國際市場嗎？

The price difference, or spread between the SHFE and LME, is closely watched, allowing traders and investors with access to various exchanges to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.

上海期貨交易所與LME之間的價格差異（價差）受到密切關注，讓同時擁有多家交易所交易渠道的交易商和投資者能夠進行套利。

The introduction of night trading to the SHFE in late 2013 allows trading at the same time as exchanges in the US and Europe, giving Chinese funds and traders greater ability to influence the global price. It also allows instant arbitrage, the simultaneous buying and selling of different contracts to take advantage of price discrepancies.

2013年下半年上海期貨交易所推出了夜盤，使得與美國和歐洲同時段交易成爲可能，讓中國的基金公司和交易商對全球價格有了更大影響力。該交易所還允許實時套利，即同時進行不同合約的買賣以此利用差價獲利。

Does pricing on the SHFE impact international physical flows?

上海期貨交易所的價格走勢會影響國際現貨流動嗎？

Yes, the SHFE price influences physical movement of metal into and out of China. Physical metals traders respond to the difference between the LME and SHFE price to book contracts.

沒錯，上海期貨交易所的價格會影響金屬現貨進出中國的情況。金屬現貨交易商根據LME和上海期貨交易所的價差來簽訂合約。

What does this mean for foreign investors?

這對外國投資者來說意味着什麼？

At the end of last year, China’s securities regulator started a public consultation on foreign investors being able to trade Chinese futures contracts.

在去年年底，中國證券監管機構就是否應允許外國投資者交易中國期貨合約啓動了公開意見徵詢。

A crude oil contract will be the first one available to foreigners to trade directly and is likely to start this year. It will be run by a subsidiary of SHFE in the Shanghai free-trade zone.

原油合約將成爲第一個外國人可以直接交易的期貨合約，很可能將從今年開始。該業務將由上海期貨交易所設在上海自貿區的子公司負責。

Still, it may take time to build up confidence, since according to metals market participants one advantage of the LME is investors can rely on the UK legal system to settle contracts, which gives greater security.

不過，獲得投資者的信賴可能還需要時間，因爲金屬市場參與者表示，LME的優勢之一就在於投資者可以依靠英國的法律制度來完成合約，這樣提供了更大的安全性。