黃金進入了牛市 Gold regains its lustre amid fears of falling rates

Gold’s best start to the year since 1980 has been good for Josh Saul, a former metals trader who runs a bullion company based next to the Bank of England.

黃金取得自1980年以來最佳的新年開局，這對喬希∠爾(Josh Saul)來說是個好消息。索爾曾是一名金屬交易員，現在經營着一家從事金條業務的公司，就設在英國央行(BoE)附近。

He has had to hire 10 temporary staff to deal with the volume of calls to The Pure Gold Company, which he founded.

他創立的“純金公司”(The Pure Gold Company)不得不僱了10名臨時工來處理大量來電。

“We’ve seen a huge increase in the amount of enquires and the amount of people looking to remove exposure to equities, banks, bonds and government debt,” he says.

索爾表示：“我們看到諮詢電話大量增加，如今很多人想移除對股票、銀行、債券和政府債務的風險敞口。”

That fear has helped push gold out of a three-year downturn, as prices for the precious metal trade at their highest levels in a year. In contrast, global equities have fallen more than 20 per cent since last May, entering a bear Market.

這種擔憂幫助黃金擺脫了持續3年的低迷，金價升至一年來的最高水平。相比之下，全球股市自去年5月以來跌幅超過20%，進入了熊市。

Last year gold slumped as investors fretted about the Federal Reserve’s first rate rise. Today they are focused on the opposite: the prospect of falling and even negative interest rates .

去年，由於投資者對美聯儲(Fed)首次加息感到不安，金價暴跌。如今，投資者關注的是相反的情況：利率不斷走低、乃至降爲負值的前景。

That has prompted fears of a global economic slowdown and a feeling that central banks have run out of tools to stimulate their economies. For long-term gold supporters it is confirmation that central banks will debase currencies in times of crisis. They see gold as a long-term store of value.

這種前景引發了人們對全球經濟放緩的擔憂，並讓他們覺得各國央行已用盡了刺激經濟的工具。對長期看好黃金的人士來說，這證實了一點，即各國央行會在發生危機時讓本幣貶值。這些人士將黃金視爲長期的價值儲藏手段。

“What’s going to sustain it [gold] is a loss of confidence in central banking, which is just starting,” says John Hathaway, portfolio co-manager at the Tocqueville Gold Fund. “What’s going to drive that is falling stocks. Zero interest rates for all these years has pushed up the valuation of a lot of garbage.”

托克維爾黃金基金(Tocqueville Gold Fund)聯席投資組合經理約翰哈撒韋(John Hathaway)表示：“人們對央行喪失信心，這將對它（黃金）起到支撐作用，而這種信心的喪失只是剛剛開始。起推動作用的是股市的持續下跌。這些年的零利率推升了大量垃圾的估值。”

The European Central Bank cut rates to negative in December while the Bank of Japan did the same last month. Sweden cut its rates further to minus 0.5 per cent last Thursday, while Janet Yellen, who chairs the Federal Reserve, said it was studying the feasibility of negative short-term rates.

歐洲央行(ECB)在去年12月將利率降爲負值，日本央行(BoJ)上月也做了同樣的事情。瑞典央行上週四將利率進一步下調至-0.5%。美聯儲主席珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)也表示，美聯儲正在研究短期利率爲負的可行性。

Gold has done better than equities, bonds and a broad basket of commodities in a low and falling interest rate environment, according to a JPMorgan analysis of data going back to 1975.

根據摩根大通(JPMorgan)對始自1975年的數據的分析，在利率處於低位且不斷下降的環境下，黃金的表現好於股票、債券以及衆多大宗商品。

Monthly returns for gold averaged 1.4 per cent during periods of low and falling US real interest rates, compared with a long-run average of 0.4 per cent, according to the bank. It expects gold prices to rise to $1,250 by the fourth quarter of this year.

摩根大通表示，在美國實際利率處於低位且不斷下降期間，黃金的月均回報率爲1.4%，而其長期平均回報率爲0.4%。該行預計，到今年第四季度，金價將升至每盎司1250美元。

Gold’s rise last week was mostly driven by buyers of gold-backed exchange traded funds, which have seen their second-largest inflow of funds in almost six years, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)表示，上週金價上漲主要受黃金ETF（交易所交易基金）買家推動，流入此類ETF的資金的規模爲將近6年來的第二高水平。

These ETF buyers have come from a large geographical base. “Previous periods of accumulation were dominated by North American buyers but purchases this year are more evenly distributed globally,” according to HSBC. “This supports the rally.”

這些ETF買家來自全球各地。匯豐(HSBC)表示：“以前的大量買盤主要來自北美買家，但今年的買盤在全球的分佈更爲均勻。這支持了金價的上漲。”

The question is whether the price rally can entice physical gold buyers in India and China who, according to the World Gold Council, accounted for 45 per cent of global gold demand last year.

問題在於，價格上漲能否吸引印度和中國的實物黃金買家——世界黃金協會(World Gold Council)的數據顯示，去年這兩個國家的實物黃金買家佔到全球黃金需求的45%。

It will also depend on the mining environment, according to Joe Wickwire, portfolio manager at the Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio. Mine production in 2015 recorded its first quarterly decline and its slowest annual growth rate since 2008, states the World Gold Council.

富達精選黃金投資組合(Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio)的投資組合經理喬威克懷爾(Joe Wickwire)表示，它還將取決於採礦業的境況。世界黃金協會指出，在2015年，黃金產量出現自2008年以來的首個季度下降、以及最慢的年度增速。

“The duration of this move in the gold space is really contingent on supply continuing to come down and the gold industry getting more right-sized,” he says.

威克懷爾表示：“這種黃金走勢的持續，取決於供應的持續下降以及黃金行業規模變得更爲適中。”

Most analysts caution that such a quick run-up in price is due a correction.

多數分析師都警告，金價如此快速的上漲應該會迎來調整。

“I don’t think we’re in the middle of a sustained bull market,” says David Govett, head of precious metals at London-based broker Marex Spectron. “It only takes a couple of positive economic figures to switch that mentality around and everyone jumps out of the lifeboat.”

倫敦經紀商Marex Spectron貴金屬業務主管戴維戈維特(David Govett)表示：“我不認爲我們處於一輪持續的牛市之中。只需幾個利好的經濟數據就能改變人們眼下的想法，到時候所有人都會跳出這艘救生艇。”

Bernard Dahdah, a London-based analyst at Natixis, who was the most accurate analyst last year as ranked by the London Bullion Market Association, predicts gold will drop to just less than $1,000 an ounce later this year if the Fed continues hiking interest rates and the global economy recovers.

法國外貿銀行(Natixis)駐倫敦分析師伯納德達赫達赫(Bernard Dahdah)預計，如果美聯儲繼續加息、而且全球經濟復甦，金價會跌至每盎司略低於1000美元的水平。達赫達赫去年被倫敦金銀市場協會(London Bullion Market Association)評爲眼光最準的分析師。

“If you look at the other fundamentals surrounding gold, I don’t think demand is strong enough to justify a high gold price,” he says.

他說：“你可以看看與黃金有關的其他基本面因素，我不認爲需求已經強勁到足以支撐金價保持在高位。”