中國郵政儲蓄銀行鉅額IPO暗藏隱憂

HONG KONG — China’s biggest banks are struggling with a slowing economy, rising bad debts and shrinking profits.

香港——中國的大銀行正竭力和經濟增長放緩、壞賬增加、利潤縮水作鬥爭。

So to raise more than $7 billion in the world’s largest new share sale in two years, a stodgy Chinese bank has sought a little help from its friends.

因此，爲了通過兩年來全世界規模最大的新股發行，募得逾70億美元資金，一家古板的中國銀行已經從朋友那裏尋求了一點幫助。

The Postal Savings Bank of China, a sprawling state-owned lender that is one of the country’s biggest, priced shares on Wednesday for its initial public offering at $0.61 each, valuing the new shares at $7.4 billion, according to a person familiar with the offering who was not authorized to speak publicly about the pricing. The total proceeds make it the biggest single I.P.O. anywhere since 2014, when Alibaba’s $25 billion New York listing set the global record.

一位知情人士稱，週三，中國最大的國有信貸機構之一中國郵政儲蓄銀行，將其首次公開募股的招股價定爲每股0.61美元，所發行的股份價值74億美元。該人士未被授權公開談其定價。阿里巴巴於2014年赴紐約上市，以250億美元的募資總額打破全球最大IPO的歷史紀錄，本次IPO是自那以後的全球單筆融資金額之最。

But only a fraction of those shares will be held by nongovernment investors, as Chinese state-run companies have already pledged to buy up most of them.

但其發行的新股只有一小部分會被非政府投資者持有，因爲一些中國國有企業已經承諾認購絕大部分股票。

The big I.P.O. is shining a light on the practice, called cornerstone investing, of inviting big investors to buy up large chunks of shares before a company goes public. Though it is less common in other markets, it has been increasingly used by Chinese state firms going public in Hong Kong, where government-controlled companies purchase growing numbers of shares to ensure a smooth offering.

這項大型IPO讓世人注意到了一種名爲基石投資的做法，也就是在一家公司上市前，邀請大投資者認購大量股票。這種做法在其他市場上並不常見，但卻受到了越來越多赴港上市的中國國企的青睞——爲了確保IPO的順利進行，受控於政府的企業在香港市場認購的股票日益增多。

Banks tend to go along with the practice because it helps get deals done, but it has come under criticism in the past because it can give plugged-in investors preferential access to new offerings.

一些銀行傾向於採取這種做法，因爲它有助於達成交易。但它在以往也飽受批評，因爲會讓有門路的投資者獲得參與IPO的優先權。

Postal Savings Bank declined to comment.

郵政儲蓄銀行拒絕置評。

On the face of it, the I.P.O. recalls a period a decade ago, when an initial wave of offerings by China’s biggest state banks on overseas stock markets resulted in megalistings attracting eager investors among foreign funds and Wall Street banks.

從表面上看，這項IPO會讓人想起10年前的那個年代。當時，中國大型國有銀行赴海外證券市場公開募股的浪潮剛剛興起，許多巨型IPO吸引了外國基金和華爾街銀行的目光，讓那些投資者充滿渴望。

Optimism about China’s banks soared with the country’s double-digit economic growth rates, and lenders like the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and the Bank of China surpassed traditional names like Citigroup and Bank of America to become the biggest banks in the world by market value.

中國兩位數的經濟增長率使得關於該國銀行的樂觀看法急劇升溫，中國工商銀行、中國建設銀行、中國銀行等信貸機構力壓花旗集團(Citigroup)、美國銀行(Bank of America)等老牌機構，成爲全世界市值最大的銀行。

That enthusiasm has been replaced by an increasing wariness of problems with China’s traditional growth model, which relied heavily on state-directed investment to support economic growth. That led to mountains of debt and rampant industrial overcapacity in areas like mining, steel making and other manufacturing businesses.

如今，那種樂觀看法，已經被人們對中國傳統增長模式所存問題的日益擔憂所取代。中國嚴重依賴由政府引導的投資來支撐經濟增長，導致債務堆積如山，採礦、鍊鋼等製造業領域的產能嚴重過剩。

Shares in China’s big banks now trade at less than the reported value of their assets — a signal that investors do not believe the banks’ books or that they expect more problem loans will crop up.

中國大型銀行的股票目前已低於財報披露的資產價值——說明投資者並不相信這些銀行的賬冊，或者認爲會有更多不良貸款冒出頭來。

With Postal Savings Bank, more than 75 percent of the shares in the bank’s I.P.O. were presold to so-called cornerstone investors, big buyers that get priority by promising not to sell their stakes for six months. All six cornerstone investors in the deal are entities affiliated with the Chinese government.

郵政儲蓄銀行通過此次IPO發行的股份，逾75%被預售給了所謂的基石投資者，也就是以六個月內不出售股票的承諾換取優先認購權的大買家。這項交易中的六個基石投資者全都是與中國政府有關聯的實體。

That state support included about $2 billion from China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and investments from Shanghai’s main port operator, a regional airline operator and the country’s main power grid company.

國家提供的支持包括來自中國船舶重工集團的20億美元資金，以及來自一家上海大型港口運營商、一家地區性航空運營商以及該國的主要電網公司的投資。

The postal bank I.P.O. comes amid a relative lull in big listings in Hong Kong. And the deals that have gone through have increasingly relied on cornerstones — a sign that underlying demand from retail or small investors may be lackluster.

郵政儲蓄銀行的IPO，是在香港市場大型IPO交易相對沉悶的情況下到來的。這些交易的進行越來越依賴基石投資者——說明來自零售投資者或者說小投資者的潛在需求頗爲低迷。

For example, cornerstone investors accounted for nearly 80 percent of the shares offered in the June listing of CDB Leasing, a state-backed aircraft leasing company. Last month, Everbright Securities, a state-controlled brokerage, sold nearly 70 percent of its I.P.O. to cornerstones.

例如，國有飛機租賃企業國銀租賃6月份赴港上市時，基石投資者認購了其所發股份的將近80%。上月赴港IPO的國有券商光大證券，把將近70%的所發股份售予基石投資者。

Last year, cornerstone investors accounted for a record 41 percent of all I.P.O.s in Hong Kong, according to figures from Dealogic, a financial data provider. The previous high was 36 percent in 2012, a difficult year for new listings.

來自金融數據供應商Dealogic的數字顯示，去年，基石投資者的投資在香港IPO交易中所佔比例創下了41%的新高。此前的最高爲2012年的36％，那是新股發行頗爲艱難的一年。

Cornerstones last year bought almost $14 billion worth of the $33.6 billion in shares sold through 49 new listings in the city, according to Dealogic.

Dealogic稱，香港市場去年共達成49宗IPO交易，所發股份總價值爲336億美元，而基石投資者買下了將近140億美元的股份。

The growing influence of cornerstones in Hong Kong has come under scrutiny, but so far regulators and lawmakers have taken a relatively hands-off approach.

基石投資者對香港市場與日俱增的影響力受到了密切關注，但到目前爲止，監管機構和立法者採取的是相對而言不過多幹預的政策。

In 2013, the city’s stock exchange cautioned underwriting banks against giving cornerstone investors preferential treatment or privileged access to information about a company’s business.

2013年，香港的證券交易所曾提醒經營IPO承銷業務的銀行，不要給予基石投資者優惠待遇，或者通過特殊渠道獲取公司業務信息的權利。

A year later, the Financial Services Development Council, a government advisory body, proposed overhauls to the I.P.O. process and the effect that cornerstones have on deal pricing.

一年後，香港政府顧問機構金融發展局提議對IPO流程以及基石投資者對交易定價的影響進行檢討。

“One undesirable side effect of I.P.O. cornerstone investment is that it takes the pricing process further away from the normal market forces and may have a distortive effect on the company’s market value,” the council wrote in its recommendations.

“IPO基石投資的一個不良副作用是，它會讓定價流程進一步脫離正常市場力量的掌控，還可能給公司市值帶來扭曲效應，”金融發展局在建議中寫道。

To date, Hong Kong regulators have not moved to limit cornerstone investing. A spokesman for the stock exchange said on Wednesday that it had researched the issue and “found no conclusive evidence that cornerstone investments narrow the shareholder base.” He added that after last year’s review, the listing committee “decided that no additional regulation is warranted at this stage.”

香港的監管機構至今尚未採取限制基石投資的舉措。港交所發言人週三稱，交易所已經研究過這個問題，“沒有發現基石投資會縮小股東基礎的結論性證據。”他還說，經過去年的檢討，上市委員會“得出的結論是，在此階段沒有必要進行額外的監管”。

Postal Savings Bank agreed to sell 12.1 billion shares at 4.76 Hong Kong dollars each, near the bottom of the market range. The offering was helped along by an unusually high number of underwriters — 26 banks in total worked on the deal.

郵政儲蓄銀行同意把121億股H股的發行價定爲4.76港元，接近招股區間的下限。幫助進行此次IPO的承銷商多得異乎尋常——共有26家銀行爲這項交易服務。