爲什麼鋰礦行業的創業公司紛紛停產

About five percent of the lithium carbonate produced in the world today goes to the pharmaceutical market, where it’s valued for its calming properties. But with surging demand on the horizon, lithium seems to be having nearly the opposite effect on investors and miners.

碳酸鋰由於具備一定的鎮定作用，現在全球約5%的產量現在流入了製藥市場。然而，隨着市場對鋰的需求越來越大，鋰行業的投資人和採礦商的命運卻幾乎截然相反。

Global lithium consumption doubled in the decade before 2012, driven largely by its use in lithium-ion batteries for cell phones and power tools. The boom will continue thanks to electric cars—Tesla’s huge gigafactory lithium-ion battery facility could by itself soak up as much as 17% of existing lithium supply (That’s a Goldman Sachs estimate—Bank of America’s was about 60% lower). That prospect has led a variety of startups to experiment with new processes and sources, hoping to elbow into a business dominated by just a few producers.

在2002至2012年的10年間，全球對鋰的消費量幾乎翻了一倍，這主要歸功於智能手機和電動工具對鋰離子電池的使用。隨着電動汽車的崛起，市場對鋰的需求還將繼續增長——單單是特斯拉汽車公司的鋰離子電池工廠，就能吃掉現有鋰供給的17%（這是高盛公司的預測，美國銀行的預測則比高盛低了60%）。鋰產業的美好前景吸引衆多創業公司紛紛實驗新流程和資源，希望能在這個目前仍由少數公司主宰的行業中佔據一席之地。

But Eric Anderson, CEO of the lithium engineering consultancy TRU, was bearish on lithium investment as early as 2009, when a flood of new projects were being planned.

不過鋰工程諮詢公司TRU的CEO埃裏克o安德森早在2009年初，也就是衆多鋰項目紛紛上馬時，就曾表示過他對衆多鋰投資並不看好。

“I made this statement that people snickered at—that plants would be built and closed . . . because of the hype surrounding the industry,” says Anderson.

安德森表示：“我當時說，由於圍繞着這個行業的大肆宣傳，很多工廠建好了之後還得關門。但很多人都對這種觀點嗤之以鼻。”

Anderson’s lithium predictions have been largely vindicated. Demand has risen more slowly than some expected—still currently between 5 and 10% per year—and new operations have been plagued by problems.

事實證明，安德森的預言基本上是正確的。市場需求的增幅並沒有達到某些人的預測，目前只在每年5%到10%之間，而這些新公司和工廠也一直飽受很多問題的困擾。

In 2012, Galaxy Resources suspended production at its Mt. Cattlin mine in western Australia. In 2013, RB Energy Inc. opened a new lithium carbonate plant in Quebec, only to suspend operations in 2014. Nevada-based Western Lithium, which has been repeatedly floated as a potentially convenient supplier for Tesla, has taken shareholders on a very bumpy ride, and is not yet online.

2012年，銀河資源公司在西澳大利亞卡特林山的鋰礦停產；2013年，RB Energy公司在加拿大魁北克省開採了一座新的碳酸鋰礦，第二年便宣告停產；內華達州Western Lithium公司一度被視爲特斯拉可能選擇的一個潛在供應商，可惜股東最終也是空歡喜一場，該公司目前也處於停產中。

According to Anderson, Western Lithium, like many new lithium operations, simply aren’t working with the right raw materials. Though lithium isn’t rare in the environment, the cost of extraction varies greatly with its concentration and form. With existing technology and present prices, truly profitable lithium comes only from the evaporation of highly concentrated brine.

安德森認爲，Western Lithium公司和鋁行業的許多新進者一樣，最大的問題就是選錯了材料。雖然鋰在自然環境中並不罕見，但它的開採成本卻根據不同的純度和形式而有很大變化。憑藉現有的技術和價格，要想獲得真正有利潤的鋰，只能來自對高濃度滷水的蒸發提煉。

Those sorts of brine deposits are nearly all in southwest South America, and controlled by established players. The three largest lithium producers are the Chile-based Sociedad Quimica y Minera, American FMC Lithium, which controls the ominously-named Hombre Muerte mine in Argentina, and Albermarle, which recently acquired competitor Rockwood. Albermarle is developing lithium brine holdings around Magnolia, Arkansas—the only American deposits that Anderson allows might make economic sense in the near future. Together, these three companies provide more than 90% of the world’s lithium, and have absorbed much of the rising demand simply by bringing untapped capacity online.

這種滷水礦牀幾乎全部分佈在南美洲西南部，而且主要掌握在一些知名企業手裏。目前鋰行業的“三巨頭”分別是智利的Sociedad Quimicay Minera公司、美國的FMC Lithium公司（它控制着阿根廷的Hombre Muerte鋰礦）和Albermarle公司（該公司最近剛剛收購了其競爭對手Rockwook公司）。Albermarle公司目前正在阿肯色州馬格諾利亞一帶開採鋰滷水礦，該礦也被安德認爲是短期內唯一一處可能產生經濟效益的美國本土礦牀。這三家的鋰產量佔據了全球總供給的90%以上，這三家公司只是稍稍擴大產量，就已經吸收了鋰市場需求的大部分增量。

A dearth of technical talent seems to be another widespread problem. The Bolivian state has faced serious management and technical hurdles in extracting the massive, high-density lithium deposits in the otherworldly salt flat Salar de Uyuni. Similarly, Chinese producers Quinghai Lithium and Citic Guoan MGL, hoping to exploit sources near Tibet, have experienced major hurdles, and plans to expand Chinese capacity to 60,000 tons a year by this year have been revised downward by half.

缺乏技術人才則是這個行業的另一個普遍問題。波利維亞在開採號稱“天空之鏡”的烏尤尼鹽湖（這個鹽湖具有大量的高濃度鋰礦牀）時，就遇到了嚴重的管理和技術障礙。與此類似，中國的青海鋰業有限公司和中信國安盟固利新能源有限公司在開採西藏附近的鋰資源時，也遇到了巨大的障礙。中國原計劃年產6萬噸鋰的目標，也不得不攔腰減半。