劍橋教授推算爲人類轉折年

2014 will determine course of century, says Cambridge professor

劍橋教授推算“2014人類轉折年”

A dramatic event that will determine the course of the 21st century will take place in 2014, according to a Cambridge University academic.

英國劍橋大學教授近日預測，2014年將會有大事件發生，21世紀將會就此發生轉變。

Professor Nicholas Boyle claims that events of the fateful year will decide whether the world enjoys peace and prosperity over the coming decades or suffers war and poverty.

據英國《每日電訊報》17日報道，英國劍橋大學教授尼古拉斯•波義爾稱該2014年發生的重大事件將決定整個世界的走向：和平繁榮抑或戰亂貧窮。

He believes financial turmoil could be the trigger for the crisis, and that the reactions of American leaders will be crucial to its outcome. He also thinks new global organisations will be key to securing stability rather than nation-states.

波義爾教授稱金融動盪將會是“2014危機”的導火索，美國領導人對此的反應和採取的行動會對未來產生重大影響。他提出，只有結束單一民族國家的時代，引進某種有效的全球性管理機制，依靠國際合作才能取得穩定的新局面。

Boyle argues that 2014 will be important because previous five centuries have also hinged on events that took place in the middle of their second decade. In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of Protestantism. A century later 1618 marked the start of the 30 Years War and decades of religious conflict in Western Europe, which ended with the establishment of the Hanoverians in 1715. The enlightened Congress of Vienna took place in 1815 following the defeat of Napoleon, heralding a century of relative stability across Europe. But in 1914 the First World War broke out.

波義爾教授解釋說自己的推斷來源於對歷史的分析：自16世紀至今，決定未來格局的世紀大事都發生在該世紀的20年代中葉。1517年，馬丁•路德將《95條論綱》張貼在德國威登堡大教堂門上，掀起一場席捲歐洲的宗教改革。1618年，神聖羅馬帝國內戰演變成持續30年的宗教流血衝突，歐洲主要國家紛紛捲入。1715年，英國漢諾威王朝的確立，真正穩固了新教地位，結束宗教爭執。1815年，維也納會議開啓了19世紀歐洲相對和平的局面。1914年，第一次世界大戰爆發。

Boyle, whose book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis is published on Thursday, said: "The character of a century becomes very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any different?"

在17日出版的新書《2014———如何度過一場新的世界危機》中，波義爾教授指出，“一個世紀的特徵會在該世紀的第2個十年內顯露出來，我們這個世紀又怎會不同？”