奧巴馬欲繞過國會搞定伊朗核協議

WASHINGTON — No one knows if the Obama administration will manage in the next five weeks to strike what many in the White House consider the most important foreign policy deal of his presidency: an accord with Iran that would forestall its ability to make a nuclear weapon. But the White House has made one significant decision: If agreement is reached, President Obama will do everything in his power to avoid letting Congress vote on it.

華盛頓——沒有人知道，在接下來的五週內，奧巴馬政府是否能與伊朗達成一個協議，限制其製造核武器的潛在能力；白宮很多人都認爲，這會是奧巴馬擔任總統期間最重要的一個外交政策協議。但白宮已經做出了一個重大決定：如果協議達成，奧巴馬總統將會盡一切所能，避免讓國會對其進行表決。

Even while negotiators argue over the number of centrifuges Iran would be allowed to spin and where inspectors could roam, the Iranians have signaled that they would accept, at least temporarily, a "suspension" of the stringent sanctions that have drastically cut their oil revenues and terminated their banking relationships with the West, according to American and Iranian officials. The Treasury Department, in a detailed study it declined to make public, has concluded Mr. Obama has the authority to suspend the vast majority of those sanctions without seeking a vote by Congress, officials say.

伊朗將被允許使用多少臺離心機？檢查員可以到哪些地方檢查？即使在這些問題上，談判代表還在進行爭論，但美國和伊朗官員稱，伊朗已經表示，他們可以接受制裁的“暫停”，至少是暫時性地接受它；這些嚴厲制裁已經大幅削減了伊朗的石油收入，並切斷了他們與西方銀行之間的關係。美國財政部(Treasury Department)進行了一項它拒絕公開的詳細研究，官員們說，該研究得出結論：奧巴馬無需經過國會投票，就有權暫停這些制裁中的絕大多數。

But Mr. Obama cannot permanently terminate those sanctions. Only Congress can take that step. And even if Democrats held on to the Senate next month, Mr. Obama's advisers have concluded they would probably lose such a vote.

不過，奧巴馬不能永久性地終止這些制裁。只有國會能這麼做。奧巴馬的顧問們得出結論，即使民主黨下個月能在參議院繼續保持多數席位，他們還是可能會在這樣的表決中失利。

"We wouldn't seek congressional legislation in any comprehensive agreement for years," one senior official said.

“多年來，對於任何全面性的協議，我們都不願尋求國會立法，”一位高級官員說。

White House officials say Congress should not be surprised by this plan. They point to testimony earlier this year when top negotiators argued that the best way to assure that Iran complies with its obligations is a step-by-step suspension of sanctions — with the implicit understanding that the president could turn them back on as fast as he turned them off.

白宮官員說，國會不應對這個計劃感到驚訝。因爲在今年年初的證詞中，高級談判代表表示，確保伊朗遵循其義務的最好方式，就是逐步中止制裁——雙方有一種默契，就是知道美國總統隨時可以暫停製裁，也隨時可以恢復它們。

"We have been clear that initially there would be suspension of any of the U.S. and international sanctions regime, and that the lifting of sanctions will only come when the I.A.E.A. verifies that Iran has met serious and substantive benchmarks," Bernadette Meehan, the spokeswoman for the National Security Council, said Friday, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency. "We must be confident that Iran's compliance is real and sustainable over a period of time."

“我們已經明確表示，美國和國際制裁一開始將是被暫停，而只有當國際原子能機構(International Atomic Energy Agency)證實，伊朗已達到了重大的、實質性的標準，我們纔會解除制裁。”國家安全委員會(National Security Council)的女發言人貝爾納黛特·米漢(Bernadette Meehan)上週五表示。“必須讓我們有信心，相信伊朗是真的在遵守協議，而且可持續一段時間才行。”

But many members of Congress see the plan as an effort by the administration to freeze them out, a view shared by some Israeli officials who see a congressional vote as the best way to constrain the kind of deal that Mr. Obama might strike.

不過，在很多國會議員眼中，政府制定這個計劃是爲了把他們晾在一邊；一些以色列官員也有同樣的看法，他們覺得，要限制奧巴馬可能會達成的協議的類型，國會表決是最好的方法。

Ms. Meehan says there "is a role for Congress in our Iran policy," but members of Congress want a role larger than consultation and advice. An agreement between Iran and the countries it is negotiating with — the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — would not be a formal treaty, and thus would not require a two-thirds vote of the Senate.

米漢說，“在我們的伊朗政策中，有需要國會去做的事，”但國會議員不想只是做諮詢和建議。伊朗與談判國——美、英、法、德、俄羅斯和中國——之間達成的協議，不會成爲一個正式條約，不需要獲得參議院三分之二的票數。

The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Robert Menendez, the New Jersey Democrat, said over the weekend that, "If a potential deal does not substantially and effectively dismantle Iran's illicit nuclear weapons program, I expect Congress will respond. An agreement cannot allow Iran to be a threshold nuclear state." He has sponsored legislation to tighten sanctions if no agreement is reached by Nov. 24.

參議院外交委員會(Senate Foreign Relations Committee)主席、新澤西州民主黨參議員羅伯特·梅嫩德斯(Robert Menendez)上週末說，“如果所達成的協議，沒有在實質上有效地摧毀伊朗的非法核武器計劃，那麼我希望國會做出反應。不能讓一紙協議來縱容伊朗跨過核國家門檻。”他支持了一項立法，如果11月24日沒有達成協議，就加緊對伊朗的制裁。

A leading Republican critic of the negotiations, Senator Mark S. Kirk of Illinois, added, "Congress will not permit the president to unilaterally unravel Iran sanctions that passed the Senate in a 99 to 0 vote," a reference to the vote in 2010 that imposed what have become the toughest set of sanctions.

在批評這個談判的人中，伊利諾伊州共和黨參議員馬克·S·柯克(Mark S. Kirk)很出名，他說：“參議院以99比0的表決結果通過了一些對伊朗的制裁，國會是不會允許總統單方面解除這些制裁的，”他指的是2010年國會就一些最嚴厲制裁進行的表決。

Such declarations have the Obama administration concerned. And they are a reminder that for a deal to be struck with Iran, Mr. Obama must navigate not one negotiation, but three.

這樣的聲明引起了奧巴馬政府的擔心。而且它們提醒人們，要與伊朗達成一項協議，奧巴馬必須進行的談判不是一個，而是三個。

The first is between Mr. Obama's negotiators and the team led by Mohammad Javad Zarif, the savvy Iranian foreign minister. The second is between Mr. Zarif and forces in Tehran that see no advantage in striking a deal, led by many in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and many of the mullahs. The critical player in that effort is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has reissued specific benchmarks for an accord, including Iran's eventual expansion of its uranium enrichment program by nearly tenfold. And the third is between Mr. Obama and Congress.

第一個談判，發生在奧巴馬的談判代表和精明的伊朗外長穆罕默德·賈瓦德·扎裏夫(Mohammad Javad Zarif)帶領的談判代表之間。第二個談判，發生在扎裏夫和德黑蘭的一些勢力之間；後者由伊斯蘭革命衛隊(Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps)的很多人和很多毛拉率領，認爲達成協議沒有好處。這項任務中的關鍵人物是阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)，他再次發佈了協議的具體標準，其中包括伊朗最終把其鈾濃縮計劃擴大近十倍。第三個，是奧巴馬和國會之間的談判。

Mr. Zarif, in an interview last summer, said that Mr. Obama "has a harder job" convincing Congress than he will have selling a deal in Tehran. That may be bluster, but it may not be entirely wrong.

去年夏天，扎裏夫在一次採訪中說，相較於他說服德黑蘭那些勢力接受協議，奧巴馬說服美國國會“更難一些”。這可能有些誇張，但也未必完全不對。

Many of the details of the negotiations remain cloaked. The lead negotiator, Wendy Sherman, the under secretary of state for political affairs and a leading candidate to become the State Department's No. 2 official next month, struck a deal with congressional leaders that enables her to avoid public testimony when the negotiations are underway. Instead, she conducts classified briefings for the key congressional committees.

談判的很多細節仍未曝光。美國首席談判代表是負責政治事務的副國務卿溫迪·R·舍曼(Wendy R. Sherman)，她也是最有希望在下月成爲國務院第二號官員的候選人。舍曼與國會領導人達成協議，雙方同意，在談判進行的過程中，她可以不用公開作證，而是爲重要的國會委員會提供機密報告。

But it is clear that along with the fate of Iran's biggest nuclear sites — Natanz and Fordow, where uranium fuel is enriched, and a heavy-water reactor at Arak that many fear will be able to produce weapons-grade plutonium — the negotiations have focused intently on how sanctions would be suspended. To the Americans, the sanctions are their greatest leverage. For many ordinary Iranians, they are what this negotiation is all about: a chance to boost the economy, reconnect with the world and end Iran's status as a pariah state.

但很顯然，這個談判除了關係到伊朗最大核設施的命運——進行鈾燃料濃縮的納坦茲和福爾道，還有阿拉克，很多人擔心那裏的一個重水反應堆將能製造出武器級鈈——而且還着重聚焦在暫停製裁的方式上。對美國人來說，制裁是他們最大的籌碼。而對於很多普通的伊朗人，這就是這次談判的目的：獲得一個刺激經濟、重新與世界相連，結束伊朗遺世獨立狀態的機會。

For that reason, many think Mr. Obama's best option is to keep the negotiations going if a deal is not reached by the deadline, a possibility both Iranian and Russian officials have floated.

出於這個原因，很多人認爲，如果像伊朗和俄羅斯官員提到的那樣，到了截止日期，協議可能還是沒能達成，那麼奧巴馬的最佳選項就是繼續談判。

"Between now and 2017 Obama's goal is to avert an Iranian bomb and avert bombing Iran," said Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "If Congress feels obliged to pass additional sanctions, the best way to do it would be to create a deterrent — basically to say if you recommence activities Iran has halted, here are new sanctions."

“從現在到2017年，奧巴馬的目標是阻止伊朗製造原子彈，而且避免對伊朗進行轟炸，”卡內基國際和平研究院(Carnegie Endowment)的伊朗問題專家卡里姆·薩德傑普爾(Karim Sadjadpour)說，“如果國會覺得有必要實施更多制裁，做到這一點的最好方式就是形成威懾——基本上說，如果伊朗重新開啓已經停止的活動，美國就會施加新的制裁。”