阿拉伯之春引發自二戰以來最大的移民潮

Migrants fleeing the Middle East and north Africa are already risking everything as they try to escape war at home。

從中東和北非逃離的移民，甘冒任何風險逃避發生在家鄉的戰亂。當貨輪Ezadeen號滿載數百名移民抵達意大利南部港口克里尼亞諾時，一名男子正在船上等待着。

The two "ghost ships" discovered sailing towards the Italian coast last week with hundreds of migrants – but no crew – on board are just the latest symptom of what experts consider to be the world's largest wave of mass-migration since the end of the second world war.

上週人們發現兩艘沒有船員的“幽靈船”滿載數百移民正駛往意大利海岸。不過這還只是冰山一角。專家們估計自二戰結束以來，世界最大一波大規模移民潮已然形成。

Wars in Syria, Libya and Iraq, severe repression in Eritrea, and spiralling instability across much of the Arab world have all contributed to the displacement of around 16.7 million refugees worldwide.

發生在敘利亞、利比亞和伊拉克的戰爭，發生在厄立特里亞的嚴重壓迫人權行爲，以及橫貫大部分阿拉伯世界的持續激增的不穩定性，已經爲世界貢獻了1,670萬流動難民。

A further 33.3 million people are "internally displaced" within their own war-torn countries, forcing many of those originally from the Middle East to cross the lesser evil of the Mediterranean in increasingly dangerous ways, all in the distant hope of a better life in Europe.

還有3,330萬難民在他們自己被戰火蹂躪的家園裏流動。這又迫使許多原本來自中東的難民甘冒越來越大的風險，橫跨危險性相對較小的地中海，實現其在歐洲過上更好生活的夢想。

"These numbers are unprecedented," said Leonard Doyle, spokesman for the International Organisation for Migration. "In terms of refugees and migrants, nothing has been seen like this since world war two, and even then (the flow of migration) was in the opposite direction."

國際移民組織的發言人萊昂納多·多伊爾說：“移民人口的數字是空前巨大的。就難民和移民來講，自從二戰以來，還沒見過像這樣的，即便那個時候移民潮流向相反的方向。”

European politicians believe they can discourage migrants from crossing the Mediterranean simply by reducing rescue operations. But refugees say that the scale of unrest in the Middle East, including in the countries in which they initially sought sanctuary, leaves them with no option but to take their chances at sea.

歐洲的政客們相信他們僅憑削減救援行動就能阻止移民橫渡地中海。但是難民們則說在中東，還有在那些他們原先尋求庇護的國家裏，局勢動盪的規模已經讓他們別無選擇，只好到大海里試試運氣。

More than 45,000 migrants risked their lives crossing the Mediterranean to reach Italy and Malta in 2013, and 700 died doing so. The number of dead rose more than four times in 2014 to 3,224.

2013年就有超過45,000名移民冒着生命危險穿越地中海到達意大利和馬耳他，其中700人死亡。而到了2014年死亡人數陡增4倍，達到3,224人。

"We know people who died – they used to live with us," said Qassim, a Syrian refugee in Egypt who now wants to reach Europe. "But we will try again to cross the sea because there's no life for us Syrians here."

昆西姆是一位敘利亞難民，現在在埃及，他想去歐洲。他說：“我們認識那些死了的人，他們以前和我們住在一起。儘管如此，我們還是要再次嘗試穿越大海，因爲在敘利亞這邊已經沒法活了。”

In Egypt, up to 300,000 refugees from the Syrian war were initially welcomed with open arms. But after Cairo's sudden regime change in summer 2013, the atmosphere turned drastically, leading to rampant xenophobia against Syriansand increased arrests and detentions of those who, for understandable reasons, did not carry the correct residency paperwork.

在埃及生活着超過300,000名因敘利亞戰爭流離失所的難民。起初他們是受到歡迎的。但是發生在2013年夏天的那場突如其來的開羅政變，使得（歡迎）氣氛急轉直下，並直接導致對敘利亞人的瘋狂排外。雖然有可理解的原因，但是那些沒有符合標準的居留文件的難民，還是遭到逮捕和扣押。

The situation is even worse in Jordan and in Lebanon, which now houses more than 1 million Syrian refugees – more than a fifth of the country's total population.

在約旦和黎巴嫩的情況更糟。因爲約旦和黎巴嫩也爲1百多萬敘利亞難民提供了庇護，而這些難民的總人數已經超過兩國人口的1/5。

Their presence has created an unprecedented strain on national resources, leading to the Lebanese government tightening restrictions last week on Syrians entering the country. And while Turkey has simultaneously moved to strengthen refugees' rights, Turkish shores are likely to remain a popular launch pad for migrants looking to reach Europe because of both the comparatively high cost of living, as well as rising xenophobia, particularly in the country's south.

難民的存在讓國家資源變得前所未有的緊張，這直接導致上週黎巴嫩政府收緊進入該國的敘利亞難民人數的限制。不過與此同時，土耳其卻正在加強難民的權利。土耳其的海岸線，尤其是在土耳其南部的，對那些想去歐洲的移民來說很像一個理想的發射臺，因爲這邊和那邊都有相對較高的生活成本和一浪高過一浪的排外浪潮。

Libya, another major point on the migration route from the Middle East and north Africa, is also no longer a safe haven after a civil war erupted there last year. The plight of refugees there, as well as across the region, makes a mockery of those who suggest the wave of migration is caused simply by economic migrants.

利比亞作爲中東和北非移民路線上的另一個重要支點，自去年內戰爆發，也不再是安全的避難所了。移民在那裏遭遇的困境，和他們在該地區其他地方遭遇的困境一樣，都在無情地嘲笑着那些認爲移民潮僅僅是由經濟原因造成的人們。

"If they're economic migrants," asked Doyle, "then how do we explain that after every outbreak of violence and repression we get a new wave of people from the area that's just had that outbreak? Why was it that, in the huge September disaster in the Mediterranean, the people who drowned were Palestinians, just a couple of weeks after the war between Gaza and Israel? And why is it that since last year there has been a steady flow of people from Eritrea, when we know there are serious problems in that country?"

多伊爾問：“如果他們因經濟原因而移民，那麼我們該如何解釋每一輪新的暴力衝突和壓迫過後，我們就會從該地區接收一波新的移民，而該地區上一輪暴力衝突纔剛結束？還有，爲什麼加沙和以色列開戰才數週，地中海九月沉船事件中溺斃的就都是巴勒斯坦人呢？還有，爲什麼自從我們知道去年厄立特里亞發生嚴重問題以來，從那個地方就會有一股持續不斷的移民流出來呢？”

But such arguments have yet to convince the British government, which refused last October to help Mediterranean rescue operations, and which by last June had admitted fewer than 150 Syrian refugees.

但是這樣的觀點並沒有說服英國政府。英國政府去年十月就拒絕幫助地中海救援行動，而去年六月也只接收了不到150名敘利亞難民。