衰退中的俄羅斯靠什麼對敘利亞用兵大綱

Any western leader who launched a military operation abroad in the middle of a stinging recession would have a hard time convincing the nation to pay for it. But as the Russian government sent its draft budget for 2016 to the Duma on Friday night, nobody even mentioned President Vladimir Putin's bombing campaign in Syria.

西方領導人如果在日子難熬的經濟衰退期間發起海外軍事行動，都會嚐到說服國民爲其買單的苦頭。但俄羅斯政府上週五晚向國家杜馬(Duma)提交2016年預算草案時，甚至沒人提到弗拉基米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)總統在敘利亞發起的轟炸行動。

Low oil prices, a weak rouble and western sanctions have caused the country's economy to contract by 3.4 per cent in the first half of the year and, as Russia relies on oil-related revenues for half of its budget, this has forced some belt-tightening.

油價下跌、盧布疲軟以及西方制裁已造成俄羅斯經濟今年上半年萎縮3.4%，由於俄羅斯一半的預算依靠與石油相關的財政收入，這迫使莫斯科在一些方面勒緊腰帶。

Pensions, for example, will increase by no more than 4 per cent next year, according to the budget — far short of the inflation rate of 12 per cent.

例如，根據預算，明年養老金的增幅將不超過4%——遠低於12%的通脹率。

Despite all this, Moscow can easily afford its military operation in Syria — both because it is cheap compared with similar endeavours by the US, and because 17 consecutive years of funding increases and an opaque budget have helped to fill the military's pockets, say defence experts.

防務專家稱，儘管如此，莫斯科能夠輕鬆負擔得起在敘利亞的軍事行動——既是因爲與美國的類似作戰行動相比，俄軍的開支較少，也是因爲連續17年的軍費增長以及不透明的預算幫助充實了俄軍的底氣。

Even if Russia continued its air strikes at the current level for a full year, it would use less than 3 per cent of the funds budgeted for national defence in 2016, according to IHS Jane's, the defence research group, and Financial Times calculations.

根據防務研究機構簡氏防務(IHS Jane's)以及英國《金融時報》的計算，即使俄羅斯繼續以當前水平進行一整年的空中打擊，所需資金也不到2016年國防預算的3%。

“We believe a campaign like the one they are running there right now would cost between $2.3m and $4m a day,” said Ben Moores, senior analyst at IHS Jane's.

簡氏防務高級分析師本·穆爾斯(Ben Moores)表示：“我們認爲，像他們如今正在開展的這類行動，每天的花費介於230萬至400萬美元之間。”

A sum of Rbs3.15tn ($51bn) has been earmarked for national defence expenditure next year. The government reversed some earlier planned defence budget cuts this week, so the 2016 draft defence budget marks a 0.8 per cent increase over this year, but both as a share of total public spending and of gross domestic product, it is decreasing slightly for the first time in years.

共計3.15萬億盧布（510億美元）已被指定用於明年的國防支出。上週，俄政府扭轉了一些早先計劃的國防預算削減，因此，2016年的國防預算將比今年增加0.8%，但其在公共支出總額和國內生產總值(GDP)所佔比重將出現多年來的首次略微減少。

However, more than a quarter of this year's budget was earmarked for military expenditure, and vast parts of the military budget are secret.

然而，今年預算的逾四分之一被劃撥給了軍事開支，而軍事預算的絕大部分都是機密。

This absence of public oversight and of a visible financial burden allows Mr Putin to continue or even expand his high-profile geopolitical challenge to the west.

缺乏公衆監督以及財政負擔不明顯，讓普京得以繼續甚至擴大他對西方高調發起的地緣政治挑戰。

On the back of constant state television coverage, which describes Russia's three-week bombing campaign in Syria as a fight against evil, the independent pollster Levada found that support for Moscow's military action had soared from a mere 14 per cent in late September to more than 70 per cent.

俄羅斯國家電視臺的不間斷報道（將俄在敘利亞持續已3周的轟炸行動描述爲打擊邪惡的鬥爭）產生了效果，獨立民調機構列瓦達(Levada)發現，對莫斯科發起的軍事行動的支持率已從9月下旬的14%飆升至逾70%。

Mr Putin's support ratings had hit an all-time high of 89.9 per cent, state-backed pollster VTsIOM said this week.

政府支持的民意調查機構VTsIOM上週稱，普京的支持率創下89.9%的歷史新高。

Mr Moores' calculation of the war cost is based on the assumption that Russia has 36 fighter aircraft and 20 helicopters at its Latakia air base which fly an average of 30 sorties a day and drop five bombs per sortie. In addition, he takes into account the presence of at least 1,500 soldiers deployed, plus naval support.

簡氏防務的穆爾斯對俄羅斯參戰成本的計算基於這樣假設：俄羅斯在拉塔基亞(Latakia)空軍基地擁有36架戰鬥機和20架直升機，平均每天出動30架次，每架次投擲5枚炸彈。此外，他還算入了俄羅斯部署的至少1500名官兵，以及俄海軍的支持。

According to IHS data, Russia could sustain its troops in Syria at little more than one-tenth of the roughly $4m it costs the US per day to support the same number of soldiers in Afghanistan.

簡氏防務的數據顯示，相比美軍在阿富汗部署同樣數量軍人每日所需的大約400萬美元開銷，俄羅斯維持敘利亞駐軍所需費用僅爲十分之一多一點。

This is because Russia can save fuel by sustaining the troops by sea, its soldiers' salaries, food and medical bills are lower, and the military personnel are believed to be concentrated at base rather than spread out in combat.

這是因爲俄羅斯可通過海路補給軍隊以節省燃料，俄軍官兵的薪水、伙食及醫療費用更低，而且俄軍事人員據信大都集中在基地，而非分散於許多前沿陣地。

According to recent figures released by the Pentagon, the US has so far spent roughly $4bn in its 14-month campaign against Isis Islamist fighters — roughly $10m a day.

五角大樓近期公佈的數據顯示，打擊“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(Isis)伊斯蘭主義武裝分子14個月以來，美國迄今已在軍事行動上支出約40億美元——每天約1000萬美元。

Other foreign and Russian defence experts said it was impossible to calculate the cost of the Syria intervention accurately, due to Moscow's opaque defence budget. But they agree that it is likely to be minuscule compared with total military spending.

其他外國及俄羅斯防務專家稱，鑑於莫斯科方面不透明的國防預算，準確計算出干預敘利亞的花費是不可能的。但他們一致認爲，與總軍事開支相比，這很可能只是很小一部分。

“This [Syria campaign spending] is going to just disappear in the huge black hole that is our country's military budget,” said Vasily Zatsepin, an expert on military economics at the independent Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. "The transparency of our defence spending is decreasing from one defence minister to the next."

“這（敘利亞軍事行動開支）將消失在我國軍事預算的巨大黑洞中，”莫斯科蓋達爾經濟政策研究所(Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)軍事經濟學專家瓦西里?扎採平(Vasily Zatsepin)說，“我們國防支出的透明度正隨着國防部長的更替而不斷降低。”

Russia's national defence budget accounts for less than half of the country's total military expenditure, which is expected to hit 5.42 per cent of GDP this year, according to Julian Cooper, an expert on Russian military spending at the University of Birmingham. On top of that, the military spends each year an amount equivalent to 60 per cent of the national defence budget on arms procurement, maintenance and development.

根據伯明翰大學(University of Birmingham)俄羅斯軍事專家朱利安·庫珀(Julian Cooper)的分析，俄羅斯國防預算佔該國總軍事開支的不到一半，後者預計今年將達到GDP的5.42%。除此之外，俄軍每年在武器採購、維護與開發上的支出相當於國防預算的60%。

A senior government official said the cost of the Syria operation was expected to be covered by reducing the number and scale of domestic military exercises. The ministry of defence does not disclose details on the cost of such exercises.

一名政府高官稱，預計敘利亞軍事行動的花銷將通過縮減國內軍事演練的次數和規模來彌補。俄國防部並不披露此類演練的詳盡開支。

IHS's calculations exclude the launch of 26 cruise missiles against Syrian insurgents on October 7, Mr Putin's birthday. A Russian official said the use of the missiles was "very expensive", but defence experts noted that a smaller number would have been launched as part of an exercise anyway.

簡氏防務的計算沒有包含10月7日（普京生日當天）向敘利亞反對派武裝分子發射的26枚巡航導彈。一名俄羅斯官員稱，使用導彈“非常昂貴”，但防務專家指出，俄軍本來就準備作爲演練的一部分發射一些導彈，儘管數量較少。

Russian military experts said several other military expenditure categories also offered reserves that could be used for the Syria war.

俄羅斯軍事專家稱，其他幾種軍費開支類別也提供了可用於敘利亞戰爭的儲備。

“Even though the Russian armed forces officially have 1m personnel, everybody knows that the real number is closer to 850,000, but the ministry of finance still provides funds for 1m,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Russian defence think-tank.

俄羅斯防務智庫戰略與技術分析中心(Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies)主任魯斯蘭·普霍夫(Ruslan Pukhov)說：“雖然官方稱俄羅斯武裝部隊擁有100萬人，大家都知道實際數字更接近85萬，但財政部仍按100萬人撥款。”

Funds claimed by the ministry of defence for expenditure such as bonuses for soldiers could be channelled into the war effort, he said.

他說，國防部所稱的一些開支——如發給士兵的獎金——可能被轉撥爲戰爭支出。

Several defence analysts added that an expected slowdown in procurements under a multiyear armaments programme would free up money for the Syria campaign. Moreover, they expect that Moscow is lowering the cost of the war by using expired ammunition stocks and making Syria foot at least part of the Russian air force's fuel bill.

多位防務分析師補充說，一項多年軍備計劃本來就預計會出現的放緩，將爲在敘利亞的軍事行動騰出資金。此外，他們認爲，莫斯科正通過使用庫存的過期彈藥，並讓敘利亞負擔俄空軍的一部分燃料費用，來降低戰爭支出。