VR設備取代智能手機還需十年

It could be a decade before virtual reality headsets become cheap and portable enough to replace smartphones as the tech industry’s dominant computing platform, the founder of Oculus VR has warned.

也許還要10年時間，虛擬現實頭盔才能變得足夠便宜、輕便，取代智能手機成爲科技業主流的計算平臺，虛擬現實頭盔製造商Oculus VR的創始人提醒說。

Virtual reality is tipped to be one of the biggest themes of this week’s Consumer Electronics Show, with Sony, HTC and Facebook-owned Oculus all set to release their headsets in the first half of 2016.

虛擬現實技術預計將成爲本週國際消費電子展(Consumer Electronics Show)最重要的主題之一，索尼(Sony)、HTC以及Facebook旗下的Oculus都將在2016年上半年推出自己的虛擬現實頭盔。

However, Palmer Luckey, who founded Oculus from his parents’ garage in 2012, says the technology requires many years of further development before it can “replace smartphones” for mainstream users.

然而，2012年在父母的車庫中創立Oculus的帕爾默勒基(Palmer Luckey)表示，這項技術還需經歷多年的進一步發展，才能“取代智能手機”成爲主流用戶的選擇。

“I think until you have really high-end computing power and until you have really slim form factors, you’re not going to see glasses that people wear every day as part of their everyday lives,” Mr Luckey says. “The only way we’re going to get to billions of users is if VR becomes something that everybody wants to use. And I think to do that, you’re going to [need to] get the cost way down and the quality way up.”

“我認爲，在擁有真正的高端計算能力並實現外形纖薄化之前，你不會看到那種人們在日常生活中天天戴着的眼鏡誕生，”勒基說，“我們贏得數十億用戶的唯一途徑是讓虛擬現實技術成爲人人都願意使用的東西。我認爲要做到這一點，（需要）壓低成本、提升品質。”

On how long that might take, Mr Luckey says: “It could be five years. It’s more likely to be 10 years. But I also don’t think that virtual reality has to get to a slim pair of glasses to be successful.”

在被問到這可能需要多長時間時，勒基說：“有可能是5年。更可能是10年。但我也並不認爲，虛擬現實非得做成一副輕薄的眼鏡纔算成功。”

In part, more development is necessary to reduce the risk of a social backlash akin to that suffered by Google Glass, Mr Luckey says. “I’m not going to pretend that there won’t be an issue, there will always be people who are against these types of things.”

勒基表示，在某種程度上，虛擬現實技術需要進一步的發展，才能減少類似谷歌眼鏡(Google Glass)遭遇的社會批評那樣的風險。“我不會假裝不存在這類問題，因爲總會有人反對這些東西。”

He acknowledges that the current headset design is “obviously not the ideal” form factor. “As it goes from a bulky pair of goggles to a slim pair of glasses, you’re going to have a much different reaction to this type of thing.” But “in the long run, the utility and adoption will outstrip any fashion concerns”.

他承認，現在虛擬現實頭盔的設計在外形上“顯然並非理想”。“如果虛擬現實設備能從笨重的護目鏡變成輕薄的眼鏡，人們將對它產生截然不同的反應。”但是，“長遠來看，其功能與普及度將戰勝人們對其外觀的擔憂”。

Oculus announced yesterday that it would begin taking pre-orders for the Rift tomorrow. Mr Luckey tweeted that shipping would “start” in the first quarter of 2016. The company has not yet revealed pricing for the first version of its Rift headset but Mr Luckey says it will initially be a “significant investment” that “disproportionately” appeals to videogamers and other early adopters in its first years on the market.

Oculus本週一宣佈，將從1月6日開始接受對Rift頭盔的預訂。勒基在Twitter上表示將在2016年第一季度“開始”發貨。該公司尚未披露Rift頭盔首發版本的定價，但勒基稱，購買該產品的花費將是一筆“重大投資”，在該產品上市頭幾年，只會對視頻遊戲玩家及其他早期用戶有“格外的”吸引力。

Mr Luckey says a VR system will probably cost a total of $1,500, including the headset and a PC powerful enough to run its high-resolution graphics fast enough to maintain the illusion of virtual worlds.

勒基表示，購買一套虛擬現實系統可能共計需要1500美元，包括一個頭盔和一臺性能足夠強大、能以足夠快的速度處理高分辨率畫面以支持虛擬世界感受的個人電腦。

Even then, the Rift’s cost is being subsidised to make it more affordable, as Facebook and Oculus try to establish the market for VR, he says.

即使在這樣的價位上，Rift頭盔也是受到了Facebook與Oculus的補貼的，好讓更多人買得起。Facebook與Oculus正努力建立虛擬現實市場。

In December, Oculus and Samsung released the more affordable Gear VR headset, which uses a Galaxy smartphone for its screen and processor instead of tethering to a PC. The $99 accessory is seen as a way for newcomers to try out VR for the first time.

去年12月，Oculus和三星(Samsung)發佈了更便宜的Gear VR頭盔，並使用三星Galaxy智能手機作爲顯示屏和處理器，以代替連接電腦。這款售價99美元的設備被視爲是吸引新手初次體驗虛擬現實的一個途徑。

Gear VR is a “portable experience that you can take anywhere”, Mr Luckey says. “But the quality of the graphics are definitely much lower quality than what you get on a high-end PC.

Gear VR頭盔“讓你可以隨身攜帶，在任何地方體驗虛擬現實”，勒基說，“但其畫質絕對要比從高端個人電腦獲得的畫質低得多。”