可樂瓶裝公司該怎麼花錢 Coca Cola how to spend it
Talk about the pause that refreshes. UK-listed Coke bottler CCH pleasantly surprised the markets with its results last week offering an optimistic outlook for 2016. CCH shares, at one point down 15 per cent this year, have recovered completely.
說到休息一下讓人精神煥發呢！在英國上市的可口可樂希臘瓶裝公司CCH上週發佈了讓市場驚喜的業績，還提供了有關2016年業績的樂觀指引。今年一度下跌15%的CCH股價至今已完全復甦。
Earlier doubts about CCH flowed from its emerging market exposure. Half of its volumes are sold in these economies. Almost a third come from Russia and Nigeria, where falling oil prices are weighing heavily. CCH’s Russian volumes have begun to fall.
此前有關CCH的擔憂源於新興市場敞口。其銷售量的一半來自這些經濟體。近三分之一來自俄羅斯和尼日利亞，這些國家受油價下跌拖累嚴重。CCH在俄羅斯的銷量已經開始下跌。
Black markets for the naira suggest a 50 per cent devaluation. According to CCH’s estimates, if the Nigerian currency fell that much its net profits would be hit by 15 per cent. Still, CCH says its “established” markets in Europe (think Italy and Switzerland) are doing well, and price increases are on the horizon.
尼日利亞奈拉的黑市價格暗示着50%的貶值。據CCH估計，如果尼日利亞貨幣貶值那麼大幅度，其淨利潤將損失15%。儘管如此，CCH表示，“老牌”歐洲市場（比如意大利和瑞士）表現不錯，正計劃調高價格。
CCH is in good shape as regards cash. Over the past five years, free cash flow has averaged 390m annually. Better operating margins, up a percentage point last year, will have only increased that number.
現金方面，CCH狀態良好。過去5年來，自由現金流每年平均達3.9億歐元。更佳的運營利潤率（去年提高了1個百分點）只會進一步推高這一數字。
The company needs to use these riches. It could return more to shareholders: a 2 per cent dividend yield is not too generous. Or it could buy growth. Coke is creating a joint venture with SABMiller begun in late 2014, known as Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, which SAB would control.
該公司需要利用這些財富。它可以向股東返還更多：目前2%的股息率不算太慷慨。或者它可以通過收購來拉動增長。可口可樂公司從2014年底開始，跟英國南非米勒釀酒公司(SABMiller)着手建立一家將由SAB控制、名爲可口可樂飲料非洲公司(Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, CCBA)的合資企業。
Anheuser-Busch InBev, which aims to acquire SAB, has considerable Pepsi assets — an uneasy fit. Buying out SAB would add a third to CCH volumes.
有計劃收購SAB的安海斯布希英博(Anheuser-Busch InBev)擁有大量百事可樂(Pepsi)資產，這是一種令人不安的契合。買下SAB所持股份將爲CCH增加三分之一的銷量。
Based on the latest data available for CCBA, and assuming a higher valuation multiple than CCH’s (given the difference in margins), SAB’s 57 per cent stake could cost as much as $6bn, thinks SocGen. Compare that with CCH’s market value of $7bn and a deal looks ambitious, even considering that CCH has relatively little debt.
基於可獲得的CCBA最新數據，並假設它有比CCH更高的估值倍數（鑑於兩者在利潤率上的差別），法國興業銀行(SocGen)認爲，購買SAB所持的57%股份可能需要60億美元。相對於CCH 70億美元的市值，這筆交易看起來雄心勃勃，即便考慮到CCH的債務相對較少。
Increasing the dividend is safer. An acquisition offers higher potential gains. CCH should make its preference clear, and soon.
增加股息可能更加保險。但收購可以提供更多的潛在收益。CCH應儘快明確自己的選擇。
