舉一反三 從駕駛培訓中學會投資

Kids who grow up in farm country learn how to drive early.

在農村長大的孩子很早就學會了開車。

When I was a teenager in the mid-1970s in the foothills of New York's Adirondack Mountains, I and all my friends drove tractors and bashed-up jalopies through the hayfields and on the dirt roads long before any of us had a learner's permit or a driver's license.

上世紀70年代中期，我還是紐約州阿第倫達克山脈腳下的一名少年。那時，我和所有朋友都還沒到拿實習駕照或正式駕照的年齡，而我們卻都在秣草地和土路上開着拖拉機和破破爛爛的舊車。

So, when it came time to take drivers' ed in high school, we thought we knew it all - until we met our teacher, a former U.S. Marine and retired New York State Trooper named Francis X. Terry.

因此，到了高中接受駕訓時，我們都認爲自己早已掌握了全部的知識和技能。直到我們遇到了駕訓老師、前美國海軍陸戰隊隊員、紐約州退休警察弗朗西斯•特里(Francis X. Terry)。

Mr. Terry had steel-gray eyes, enormous hands and a crewcut that looked like something you would use to scrub the bottom of a Sherman tank. He taught drivers' ed the way a drill sergeant teaches push-ups - with precision, relentless discipline and a biting sense of humor.

特里有着深灰色的眼睛和巨大的雙手，頭上剃着板寸，頭髮硬的好像可以充當一輛謝爾曼坦克的底盤刷子。他教我們駕車的方式就像是一個軍隊教官訓練俯臥撐――精確、紀律嚴格，同時還帶着一些辛辣的玩笑話。

To this day, more than 35 years after I last laid eyes on him, I can still picture Mr. Terry repeating his lessons to us. Almost every time I drive anywhere, one of his unmistakably worded proverbs comes back to me. Psychologists have shown that you will find messages intrinsically more persuasive when they rhyme or are otherwise easier to remember; Mr. Terry must have instinctively understood that.

直到今天（我上次看到他是在超過35年前），我的腦海中還能浮現出他反覆指導我們的一幕。而幾乎每次開車時，我也都能回憶起他的某條警句。心理學家已經證實，當一句話押韻或能用其他方式被輕鬆記住時，你會發現這句話更有內在說服力。特里必然用直覺發現了這一點。

Only recently did I realize that his messages apply at least as much to investing as they do to driving. Here are the pithy expressions Mr. Terry taught us about driving - and how I think they apply to investing as well.

我只是最近才意識到，與開車相比，特里的話至少同樣適用於投資。下面是特里在教我們開車時的一些精闢警句，以及我認爲這如何適用於投資：

Put Your Head on a Swivel

腦袋轉起來

When we backed up or parallel-parked, Mr. Terry would say, 'Put your head on a swivel.' He meant that you need to look to your left, to your right, in front of you and behind you when you back up. He explained that a deer, a dog or a kid on a tricycle could come out of nowhere: 'One second there's nothing there. The next second you just hit something or somebody.'

當我們倒車或平行泊車時，特里會說：“腦袋轉起來”。他是指你需要在倒行時左看右看、前看後看。他解釋道，可能突然就冒出來一隻鹿、一條狗，或者一個騎着三輪車的小孩。他說，第一秒還沒有任何東西，第二秒你就會撞上某些東西或某些人。

If any of us looked in the same direction for more than a second or two while we were backing up, Mr. Terry would bark, 'Put your head on a swivel!' If you forgot, he would stomp so hard on the chicken brake that the car would slam to a halt.

如果在倒車時，我們當中任何一人對着單個方向看的時間超過了一秒或兩秒，特里就會大喊大叫：“腦袋轉起來！”。如果你忘記了，他就會用力踩住剎車，然後車就會突然停下來。

I heard 'Put your head on a swivel' so often at age 16 that I still hear it in my own head, at age 54, every time I back up my car.

我在16歲時聽到“腦袋轉起來”這句話的次數是如此多，以至於到了54歲，我每次倒車時這句話都還在腦海中迴盪。

The investing lesson: Risk is all around you, and the likeliest places to look for it are the places that appear to be the safest. That's where the next danger will come from - just where and when nobody is looking.

投資教育意義：你的周圍到處是風險，你最可能發現風險的地方就是那些看上去最安全的地方。下一個危險就會這樣出現――在沒人看到的地方和沒人注意的時候。

Edge On, Edge Off

慢進慢出

Whenever we pulled out of a driveway, parking lot or side road, Mr. Terry would say, 'Edge on.' He wanted us to change direction gradually, carving a slight angle rather than a sudden move off our previous course. Whenever we left the main road onto the shoulder or a fork, Mr. Terry would say, 'Edge off,' urging us to change direction as gently and steadily as possible.

每當我們離開私人車道、停車場或岔路時，特里都會說：“慢點進。”他是希望我們逐步改變方向，轉出一個小角度，而不是突然脫離之前的駕駛路線。每當我們離開主路進入路肩和岔路時，特里都會說：“慢點出。”他是在敦促我們以儘可能輕、儘可能穩的方式改變路線。

The corollary to 'Edge on, edge off' was Mr. Terry's most unforgettable apothegm of all: 'STOP does not stand for 'Skid Tires on Pavement.'' Knowing that teenagers - especially boys - love nothing better than screeching to a halt at the last possible second and then squealing off after an infinitesimal rolling pause, Mr. Terry hammered home that you should slow down well before the stop sign, come to a complete stop and accelerate only gradually through the intersection.

特里最令人無法忘記的箴言對“慢進慢出”作了一番引申：停車標誌沒告訴你要急剎車。他知道青少年（尤其是男孩）最喜歡的就是在最後一秒急剎車，然後在車停未穩之際又踩着油門開起來。特里總是強調，你應該在離停車標誌很遠時就開始放慢速度，到停車標誌時完全停下，而在通過交叉路口時，你只能把油門放慢。

I never look at a stop sign without a slight smile, and I've never done a rolling stop in my life.

直到現在，我還從來沒有緊張地看到停車標誌已經近在眼前，也從來沒有急剎車。

The investing lesson: Making a sudden change in your plan is usually a mistake. Making a sudden, big change in your plan almost always is.

投資教育意義：突然對計劃做改動通常是一個錯誤，突然對計劃做大幅改動幾乎總是個錯誤。

Get in the Ground-Viewing Habit

養成觀察地面的習慣

Every time an approaching car would even slightly vary its speed or direction - slowing down, speeding up, veering slightly toward the middle of the road - Mr. Terry would remind us, 'Get in the ground-viewing habit.' He trained us to look at the car's front tires.

每次當一輛正在靠近的車改變速度或方向――減速，加速，或稍微轉向路中間時，即使變化幅度很小，特里也會提醒我們：“養成觀察地面的習慣。”他訓練我們觀察汽車的前輪。

The tip was especially useful when you were driving along a line of parked or idling cars; the first sign that any of them might pull out in front of you was a tire that suddenly turned sharply. If we saw the tires turn, we would know what the driver was about to do, regardless of whether he had the courtesy to use a turn signal.

當你沿着一排停着的汽車行駛時，這個技巧尤其重要。如果其中有一輛車可能突然衝到你面前，第一個跡象就是輪胎突然轉起來。如果我們看到輪胎轉起來，我們就都知道這輛車接下來要做什麼了，無論司機是否禮貌地打了轉向燈。

Mr. Terry also told us an unforgettable story from his days as a state trooper. One sunny autumn day, a driver had parked his car without noticing that the front tire ended up buried to the hubcap in a freshly raked pile of leaves. Before the driver could walk into the store, the clerk stepped out and said, 'You'd better go right back out to your car, sir.' The clerk had seen what the driver had overlooked: a puff of smoke coming out of the pile of leaves under his tire.

特里還告訴我們一件他當州警察時記憶深刻的事情。一個陽光明媚的秋日，一名司機停車時沒有注意到輪胎被埋在了一堆新掃的樹葉中。司機還沒有走到商店裏，店員就走出來對他說：先生，你最好回去看看你的車。這名店員看到一股煙從他輪胎下面的樹葉堆裏冒出來，而這恰恰被司機忽略了。

By the time the driver got to the curb, the front tire burst into flames; by the time Mr. Terry arrived on the scene, the car was an inferno. I still glance down at my tires every time I get in or out of my car.

當司機回到路邊時，前輪胎已經着火了，當特里趕到現場時，汽車已經被燒燬。現在我每次上下車都要看一看輪胎。

The investing lesson: It's what is beneath eye-level that matters. Look at base rates to determine what is most likely to happen, on average, under similar circumstances. When an initial public offering earns a hot return that tempts you to buy the next one, ask what the average performance of IPOs is ( much lower than the average stock). When someone says that a rise in interest rates will crush the bond market, see what has happened in the past and ask what a 1% hike in rates would do. (At today's yields, it would knock about 5% off the price of a diversified bond fund.)

投資教育意義：視線下方的情況才至關重要。在相似的環境下，看看基本利率再決定通常最可能發生什麼。如果有一個首次公開募股(IPO)交易收益豐厚，吸引你再購買一隻新股，想想IPO的平均表現（通常比普通股票差得多）。如果有人說利率上升將導致債券市場崩盤，看看過去發生的情況，想想加息一個百分點會帶來什麼影響。（在目前的收益率水平，加息一個百分點將導致一隻多樣化債券基金的價格下跌大約5%。）

Give Him Room and Let Him Zoom

給他點空間，讓他洋洋自得

Nothing frustrates a teenage driver as much as having another driver speed past you with a honk and a cloud of dust. The urge to stand on the gas pedal and go barreling after the other car is almost overpowering. 'Give him room and let him zoom,' Mr. Terry would say. Then he would pause and say the same thing every time: 'Mark my words. When we get to the next stoplight, he'll be right in front of us.'

一個司機按着喇叭一溜煙超過了你，對於一個十幾歲正血氣方剛的司機來說，沒有什麼事情比這更讓人氣憤了。你幾乎抑制不住要踩油門追上去，但特里說：給他點空間，讓他洋洋自得。然後每次他都會停下來說：記住我的話，到了下一個紅燈，你就追上他了。

We would get to the next stoplight, and sure enough: There would be the red Camaro that had just passed us. Suddenly the guy who had seemed so cool looked like a fool.

我們會開到下一個紅燈，果然追上了剛纔超過我們的紅色科邁羅(Camaro)。剛剛還看上去還神奇十足的那個傢伙，這會兒看上去倒像個傻瓜。

The investing lesson: People who try to get rich quick don't end up any farther along - and take a lot more risk, and incur a lot more cost, to get there. You don't get bonus points in investing for arriving at your destination ahead of time. The only thing that matters is getting there in one piece.

投資教育意義：那些試圖迅速致富的人最終並不會走得更遠，反而要承擔更多風險，付出更多成本。投資時你不會因爲先到目的地而獲得額外獎賞。唯一重要的是毫髮無損地到達目的地。

I don't know where you are now, Mr. Terry. But thanks for making me a safe driver - and investor.

特里，我不知道你現在在哪裏，但謝謝你讓我成爲了一名穩健的司機和穩健的投資者。